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The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from US cities

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Gilles Duranton
Matthew A. Turner

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Abstract

We investigate the relationship between interstate highways and highway vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) in US cities. We find that VKT increases proportionately to highways and identify three important sources for this extra VKT: an increase in driving by current residents; an increase in transportation intensive production activity; and an inflow of new residents. The provision of public transportation has no impact on VKT. We also estimate the aggregate city level demand for VKT and find it to be very elastic. We conclude that an increased provision of roads or public transit is unlikely to relieve congestion.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15376.

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Date of creation: Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15376

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
L91 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Transportation: General
R41 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Transportation Systems - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion

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  1. Jonathan Leape, 2006. "The London Congestion Charge," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 157-176, Fall.
  2. Keeler, Theodore E & Small, Kenneth A, 1977. "Optimal Peak-Load Pricing, Investment, and Service Levels on Urban Expressways," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 1-25, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert Cervero & Mark Hansen, 2002. "Induced Travel Demand and Induced Road Investment: A Simultaneous Equation Analysis," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, London School of Economics and University of Bath, vol. 36(3), pages 469-490, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Herbert Mohring, 1961. "Land Values and the Measurement of Highway Benefits," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69, pages 236. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Duranton, Gilles & Turner, Matthew A, 2008. "Urban Growth and Transportation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6633, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Hansen, Mark & Huang, Yuanlin, 1997. "Road supply and traffic in California urban areas," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 205-218, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2007. "Do Political Parties Matter? Evidence from U.S. Cities," NBER Working Papers 13535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Glaeser, E.L. & Scheinkman, J.A. & Shleifer, A., 1995. "Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities," Papers e-95-4, Stanford - Hoover Institution.
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  9. Alan B. Krueger & Daniel Kahneman & David Schkade & Norbert Schwarz & Arthur A. Stone, 2008. "National Time Accounting: The Currency of Life," Working Papers 1061, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Nathaniel Baum-Snow, 2007. "Did Highways Cause Suburbanization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 122(2), pages 775-805, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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