William C. Wheaton () (Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, MA 02139) Gleb Nechayev () (Torto Wheaton Research Boston, MA 02110-3036)
Abstract
This paper examines the inflation in housing prices between 1998 and 2005 and investigates whether this run-up in prices can be ‘‘explained’’ by increases in demand fundamentals such as population, income growth, and the decline in interest rates over this period. Time series models are estimated for 59 MSA markets and price changes from 1998 to 2005 are dynamically forecast using actual economic fundamentals to drive the models. In all 59 markets, the growth in fundamentals from 1998 to 2005 forecasts price growth that is far below that which actually occurred. An examination of the 2005 forecast errors reveals they are greater in larger MSAs, in MSAs where second home and speculative buying was prevalent, and in MSAs where indicators suggest the sub-prime mortgage market was most active. These latter factors are unique to the recent housing market and hence make it difficult to asses if and how far housing prices will ‘‘correct’’ after 2005.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Contact details of provider: Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323 Email: Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/
Order Information: Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323 Email: Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (JRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster).
Related research
Keywords:
Find related papers by JEL classification: L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services