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Do the Forward Sales of Real Estate Stabilize Spot Prices?

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  • S. Wong

    ()

  • C. Yiu
  • M. Tse
  • K. Chau
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    Abstract

    We examine the effect of forward sale (pre-sale) activities on the volatility of spot prices in the real estate market. The abundance of pre-sales data and major changes in regulatory control on the pre-sale market during the 90's in Hong Kong allow us to undertake empirical tests using Hong Kong's real estate data. Our results show that the volatility of spot prices increased significantly after forward sales were severely dampened by regulatory control measures introduced in 1994, but decreased again when the measures were partly relaxed in 1998. The results contribute to the long lasting debate on whether the introduction of a futures market reduces the volatility of spot prices. Previous studies were mainly conducted in markets with low transaction costs, notably financial markets. By utilizing the unique regulatory changes in the pre-sale market of Hong Kong, we are able to conduct an experiment on the conditional volatility of spot prices in a high information-cost environment, thereby shedding light on the important role of forward housing contracts in providing price expectation information for spot trading. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2006

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 3 (May)
    Pages: 289-304

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:32:y:2006:i:3:p:289-304

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

    Related research

    Keywords: Forward contract; GARCH model; Pre-sale; Price volatility;

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    1. Cox, Charles C, 1976. "Futures Trading and Market Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1215-37, December.
    2. Rose Neng Lai & Ko Wang & Yuqing Zhou, 2004. "Sale before Completion of Development: Pricing and Strategy," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 329-357, 06.
    3. Taylor, Gregory S. & Leuthold, Raymond M., 1974. "The Influence of Futures Trading on Cash Cattle Price Variations," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 01.
    4. Shiller, Robert J., 1998. "Macro Markets: Creating Institutions for Managing Society's Largest Economic Risks," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198294184.
    5. John B. Corgel & Gerald D. Gay, 1984. "The Impact of GNMA Futures Trading on Cash Market Volatility," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 12(2), pages 176-190.
    6. Figlewski, Stephen, 1981. "Futures Trading and Volatility in the GNMA Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 445-56, May.
    7. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
    8. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. " Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-29, March.
    9. Kenneth C. Froewiss, 1978. "GNMA futures: stabilizing or destabilizing?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Spr, pages 20-29.
    10. Working, Holbrook, 1960. "Price Effects of Futures Trading," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 01, February.
    11. Dale, Charles & Workman, Rosemarie, 1981. "Measuring patterns of price movements in the Treasury bill futures market," MPRA Paper 48639, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:
    1. Maurice Tse & Frederik Pretorius & K. Chau, 2011. "Market Sentiments, Winner’s Curse and Bidding Outcome in Land Auctions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 247-274, April.
    2. Sherry Zhefang ZHOU & Helen Xiaohui BAO, 2009. "Modelling Price Dynamics In The Hong Kong Property Market," Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 4(1S), pages 8-26, April.
    3. Chyi Lee & Simon Stevenson & Ming-Long Lee, 2014. "Futures Trading, Spot Price Volatility and Market Efficiency: Evidence from European Real Estate Securities Futures," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 299-322, February.
    4. Su Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2012. "Presale Contract and its Embedded Default and Abandonment Options," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 116-152, January.
    5. Gaetano Lisi, 2011. "Price Dispersion in the Housing Market: The Role of Bargaining and Search Costs," Working Papers hal-00628323, HAL.
    6. C. Yiu & S. Wong & K. Chau, 2009. "Transaction Volume and Price Dispersion in the Presale and Spot Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 241-253, April.
    7. K. Chau & S. Wong & C. Yiu, 2007. "Housing Quality in the Forward Contracts Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 313-325, April.
    8. Monkkonen, Paavo & Wong, Kelvin & Begley, Jaclene, 2012. "Economic restructuring, urban growth, and short-term trading: The spatial dynamics of the Hong Kong housing market, 1992–2008," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 396-406.
    9. S. Wong & K. Chau & C. Yiu, 2007. "Volatility Transmission in the Real Estate Spot and Forward Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 281-293, October.
    10. Gang-Zhi Fan & Ming Pu & Seow Ong, 2012. "Optimal Portfolio Choices, House Risk Hedging and the Pricing of Forward House Transactions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 3-29, June.
    11. Yongheng Deng & Peng Liu, 2009. "Mortgage Prepayment and Default Behavior with Embedded Forward Contract Risks in China’s Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 214-240, April.

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