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Housing Quality in the Forward Contracts Market

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Author Info
K. Chau ()
S. Wong
C. Yiu
Abstract

Developers often conduct forward sales (or presales) before building completion to relieve financial risk and burden. However, there are worries that housing units sold in this way will turn out to be substandard because developers, who have been paid for the unfinished units, may have incentives to cut costs by lowering the quality. This is a typical moral hazard problem. Nonetheless, forward sales have been very popular in some Asian cities such as Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan. A plausible explanation is that the market has efficiently adjusted the forward price for this potential quality problem according to developers’ reputations. This paper aims to theoretically explain and empirically test (1) whether reputation is reflected in forward prices and (2) whether the expected quality level matches with the actual quality level. Using the forward and spot sales data of the Hong Kong real estate market, we found that even though housing quality was not observable during presales, the market was able to capitalize developers’ reputations into forward prices accurately. This suggests that the optimal strategy for developers is to stick to the quality level implied by their reputations. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-007-9018-x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (April)
Pages: 313-325
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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:34:y:2007:i:3:p:313-325

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Related research
Keywords: Real estate forward sales; Moral hazard; Reputation; Market efficiency;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Kreps, David M. & Wilson, Robert, 1982. "Reputation and imperfect information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 253-279, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Mirrlees, J A, 1999. "The Theory of Moral Hazard and Unobservable Behaviour: Part I," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(1), pages 3-21, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Nelson, Phillip, 1970. "Information and Consumer Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 311-29, March-Apr. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Douglas Gale & Robert W. Rosenthal, 1994. "Price and Quality Cycles for Experience Goods," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(4), pages 590-607, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Mueller, Dennis C & Supina, Dylan, 2002. " Goodwill Capital," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 233-53, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Shapiro, Carl, 1983. "Premiums for High Quality Products as Returns to Reputations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 659-79, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. S. Wong & C. Yiu & M. Tse & K. Chau, 2006. "Do the Forward Sales of Real Estate Stabilize Spot Prices?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 289-304, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Rose Neng Lai & Ko Wang & Yuqing Zhou, 2004. "Sale before Completion of Development: Pricing and Strategy," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 329-357, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Miller, Robert A, 1988. "Innovation and Reputation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 741-65, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bengt Holmstrom, 1979. "Moral Hazard and Observability," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pages 74-91, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-97, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sherry Zhefang ZHOU & Helen Xiaohui BAO, 2009. "Modelling Price Dynamics In The Hong Kong Property Market," Cercetari practice si teoretice in managementul urban/Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 4(1S), pages 8-26, April. [Downloadable!]
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