IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reesec/v50y2022i4p1054-1106.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Contract rescission in the real estate presale market

Author

Listed:
  • Quan Gan
  • Maggie Rong Hu
  • Wayne Xinwei Wan

Abstract

This study documents that over 10% of the presale contracts in the Hong Kong housing market between 1996 and 2014 were rescinded, resulting in a loss of HKD 436.67 million per year. We then investigate potential determinants of contracts rescission from a novel perspective of option theory. We find out‐of‐the‐money presale contracts (with market price being lower than the outstanding payment at settlement) have a 12.2% higher rescission rate. The rescission rate is also higher when presale homebuyers bear more of the price risk as proxied by option delta and time‐induced risk as proxied by time to maturity. Moreover, we find rescission rates drop significantly after the Hong Kong government's housing market macroprudential measures. Our findings shed light on understanding the mechanism of presale contracts rescission, homebuyers’ strategic default behavior, and the role of housing market regulation in mitigating rescissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Quan Gan & Maggie Rong Hu & Wayne Xinwei Wan, 2022. "Contract rescission in the real estate presale market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1054-1106, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:50:y:2022:i:4:p:1054-1106
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.12363
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12363
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1540-6229.12363?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Quan Gan, 2013. "Optimal Selling Mechanism, Auction Discounts and Time on Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 41(2), pages 347-383, June.
    2. Yongheng Deng & Peng Liu, 2009. "Mortgage Prepayment and Default Behavior with Embedded Forward Contract Risks in China’s Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 214-240, April.
    3. S. Wong & C. Yiu & M. Tse & K. Chau, 2006. "Do the Forward Sales of Real Estate Stabilize Spot Prices?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 289-304, May.
    4. Rose Neng Lai & Ko Wang & Yuqing Zhou, 2004. "Sale before Completion of Development: Pricing and Strategy," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 329-357, June.
    5. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2013. "The Determinants of Attitudes toward Strategic Default on Mortgages," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1473-1515, August.
    6. Edward L. Glaeser, 2013. "A Nation of Gamblers: Real Estate Speculation and American History," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 1-42, May.
    7. Bruce L. Gordon & Daniel Winkler & J. Doug Barrett & Leonard Zumpano, 2013. "The Effect of Elevation and Corner Location on Oceanfront Condominium Value," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 35(3), pages 345-364.
    8. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260.
    9. Richard Buttimer & Steven Clark & Steven Ott, 2008. "Land Development: Risk, Return and Risk Management," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 81-102, January.
    10. K. Chau & S. Wong & C. Yiu, 2007. "Housing Quality in the Forward Contracts Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 313-325, April.
    11. Sheharyar Bokhari & David Geltner, 2011. "Loss Aversion and Anchoring in Commercial Real Estate Pricing: Empirical Evidence and Price Index Implications," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 635-670, December.
    12. Steven C. Bourassa & Donald R. Haurin & Jessica L. Haurin & Martin Hoesli & Jian Sun, 2009. "House Price Changes and Idiosyncratic Risk: The Impact of Property Characteristics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 259-278, June.
    13. L. Li & K. W. Chau, 2019. "What Motivates a Developer to Sell before Completion?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 209-232, August.
    14. Thorsten Beck & Ross Levine & Alexey Levkov, 2010. "Big Bad Banks? The Winners and Losers from Bank Deregulation in the United States," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1637-1667, October.
    15. Su Han Chan & Fang Fang & Jing Yang, 2014. "Presales, Leverage Decisions and Risk Shifting," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 36(4), pages 475-510.
    16. Yiying Cheng & Steven P. Clark & Kiplan S. Womack, 2021. "A Real Options Model of Real Estate Development with Entitlement Risk," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 106-151, March.
    17. Dennis R. Capozza & Yuming Li, 2001. "Residential Investment and Interest Rates: An Empirical Test of Land Development as a Real Option," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 503-519, March.
    18. Kristopher Gerardi & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Lee E. Ohanian & Paul S. Willen, 2018. "Can’t Pay or Won’t Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 1098-1131.
    19. Ambrose, Brent W & Buttimer, Richard J, Jr, 2000. "Embedded Options in the Mortgage Contract," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 95-111, September.
    20. S. Wong & K. Chau & C. Yiu, 2007. "Volatility Transmission in the Real Estate Spot and Forward Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 281-293, October.
    21. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    22. C. Yiu & S. Wong & K. Chau, 2009. "Transaction Volume and Price Dispersion in the Presale and Spot Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 241-253, April.
    23. Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2015. "Availability, Affordability and Volatility: The Case of the Hong Kong Housing Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(3), pages 383-428.
    24. Siu Wong & C. Yiu & K. Chau, 2012. "Liquidity and Information Asymmetry in the Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 49-62, June.
    25. Su Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2012. "Presale Contract and its Embedded Default and Abandonment Options," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 116-152, January.
    26. Neil Bhutta & Jane Dokko & Hui Shan, 2017. "Consumer Ruthlessness and Mortgage Default during the 2007 to 2009 Housing Bust," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(6), pages 2433-2466, December.
    27. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    28. Byun, Suk-Joon & Kim, Da-Hea, 2016. "Gambling preference and individual equity option returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 155-174.
    29. Robert A. JARROW & George S. OLDFIELD, 2008. "Forward Contracts And Futures Contracts," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 11, pages 237-246, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    30. Robert Edelstein & Peng Liu & Fang Wu, 2012. "The Market for Real Estate Presales: A Theoretical Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 30-48, June.
    31. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    32. Brian H. Boyer & Keith Vorkink, 2014. "Stock Options as Lotteries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(4), pages 1485-1527, August.
    33. Patrick J. Bayer & Christopher Geissler & James W. Roberts, 2011. "Speculators and Middlemen: The Role of Flippers in the Housing Market," Working Papers 11-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    34. Jimmy E. Hilliard & James B. Kau & V. Carlos Slawson, 1998. "Valuing Prepayment and Default in a Fixed‐Rate Mortgage: A Bivariate Binomial Options Pricing Technique," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(3), pages 431-468, September.
    35. Yuming Fu & Wenlan Qian, 2014. "Speculators and Price Overreaction in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(4), pages 977-1007, December.
    36. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    37. Jin Choi & Henning Rasmussen & Matt Davison, 2012. "Fair Value and Risk Profile for Presale Contracts of Condominiums," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 472-504, May.
    38. Siu Kei Wong & Ka Shing Cheung, 2020. "Housing price dispersion in the presale market," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 65-81, January.
    39. Yuming Fu & Wenlan Qian & Bernard Yeung, 2016. "Speculative Investors and Transactions Tax: Evidence from the Housing Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(11), pages 3254-3270, November.
    40. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. "The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-1679, December.
    41. Huimin Yao & Frederik Pretorius, 2014. "Demand Uncertainty, Development Timing and Leasehold Land Valuation: Empirical Testing of Real Options in Residential Real Estate Development," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(4), pages 829-868, December.
    42. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-790, July.
    43. Kathryn Kadous & William B. Tayler & Jane M. Thayer & Donald Young, 2014. "Individual Characteristics and the Disposition Effect: The Opposing Effects of Confidence and Self-Regard," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 235-250, July.
    44. Michael J. Seiler & Vicky L. Seiler & Mark A. Lane & David M. Harrison, 2012. "Fear, Shame and Guilt: Economic and Behavioral Motivations for Strategic Default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40, pages 199-233, December.
    45. Michael G. Bradley & Amy Crews Cutts & Wei Liu, 2015. "Strategic Mortgage Default: The Effect of Neighborhood Factors," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 271-299, June.
    46. Edward L. Glaeser, 2013. "A Nation Of Gamblers: Real Estate Speculation And American History," NBER Working Papers 18825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. L. Li & K. W. Chau, 2019. "What Motivates a Developer to Sell before Completion?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 209-232, August.
    2. Mi‐Hsiu Chiang & Hsin‐Yu Chiu & Robin K. Chou, 2021. "Relevance of the disposition effect on the options market: New evidence," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(1), pages 75-106, March.
    3. Seow Ong & Tien Sing & Alan Teo, 2007. "Delinquency and Default in Arms: The Effects of Protected Equity and Loss Aversion," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 253-280, October.
    4. Jackson T. Anderson & David M. Harrison & Michael J. Seiler, 2022. "Reducing Strategic Forbearance under the CARES Act: an Experimental Approach Utilizing Recourse Attestation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 230-260, August.
    5. L. Li & Helen X. H. Bao & K. W. Chau, 2023. "On the Strategic Timing of Sales by Real Estate Developers: To Wait or To Presell?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 169-196, January.
    6. Kathryn Graddy & Lara Loewenstein & Jianping Mei & Mike Moses & Rachel A. J. Pownall, 2023. "Empirical evidence of anchoring and loss aversion from art auctions," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 47(2), pages 279-301, June.
    7. Diao, Mi & Fan, Yi & Sing, Tien Foo, 2021. "Rational pricing responses of developers to supply shocks: Evidence from Singapore," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 802-815.
    8. Carolin Fritzsche & Lars Vandrei, 2018. "Causes of Vacancies in the Housing Market – A Literature Review," ifo Working Paper Series 258, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    9. Wang, Wen-Kai & Lin, Che-Chun & Tsai, I-Chun, 2022. "Long- and short-term price behaviors in presale housing markets in Taiwan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 350-364.
    10. Hirota, Shinichi & Suzuki-Löffelholz, Kumi & Udagawa, Daisuke, 2020. "Does owners’ purchase price affect rent offered? Experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    11. Ming-Cheng WU & I-Cheng LIN & Yi-Ting HUANG & Chang-Rong, 2015. "Forecasting Prices Of Presale Houses: A Real Option Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 143-158, March.
    12. Peyman Khezr & Shabbir Ahmad, 2018. "Anchoring in the Housing Market: Evidence from Sydney," Discussion Papers Series 596, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    13. Pavan, Marina & Barreda-Tarrazona, Iván, 2020. "Should I default on my mortgage even if I can pay? Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    14. Chang, Chuang-Chang & Chao, Ching-Hsiang & Yeh, Jin-Huei, 2016. "The role of buy-side anchoring bias: Evidence from the real estate market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 34-58.
    15. Lepone, Grace & Tian, Gary, 2020. "Usage of conditional orders and the disposition effect in the stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    16. Barberis, Nicholas & Xiong, Wei, 2012. "Realization utility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 251-271.
    17. Einiö, Mikko & Kaustia, Markku & Puttonen, Vesa, 2008. "Price setting and the reluctance to realize losses in apartment markets," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 19-34, February.
    18. Patrick Krieger & Carsten Lausberg, 2021. "Entscheidungen, Entscheidungsfindung und Entscheidungsunterstützung in der Immobilienwirtschaft: Eine systematische Literaturübersicht [Decisions, decision-making and decisions support systems in r," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 7(1), pages 1-33, April.
    19. Cici, Gjergji, 2011. "The prevalence of the disposition effect in mutual funds' trades," CFR Working Papers 11-05 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    20. Jakusch, Sven Thorsten, 2017. "On the applicability of maximum likelihood methods: From experimental to financial data," SAFE Working Paper Series 148, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2017.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:50:y:2022:i:4:p:1054-1106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/areueea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.