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Residential Investment and Interest Rates: An Empirical Test of Land Development as a Real Option

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  • Dennis R. Capozza
  • Yuming Li

Abstract

In real options models, investment can increase under some conditions when interest rates rise. This research tests for these positive interest rate responses in the context of the Capozza-Li model of land development. In the model variable capital intensity is a sufficient condition for positive responses to interest rates that can occur when growth rates are high or uncertainty is high. The empirical analysis uses a panel data set on residential investment in the 1980s and finds that 25-50% of the sample lies in the positive response region. Copyright 2001 by the American Real Estate and Urban Ecopnomics Assocaition.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

Volume (Year): 29 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 503-519

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Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:29:y:2001:i:3:p:503-519

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Cited by:
  1. Yang, Zan & Wang, Songtao & Campbell, Robert, 2010. "Monetary policy and regional price boom in Sweden," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 865-879, November.
  2. Gang-Zhi Fan & Zsuzsa Huszár & Weina Zhang, 2013. "The Relationships between Real Estate Price and Expected Financial Asset Risk and Return: Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 568-595, May.
  3. Flavia Cortelezzi & Pierpaolo Giannoccolo, 2006. "Strategic Urban Development under Uncertainty," Working Papers 20060601, UniversitĂ  degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica, revised Jun 2006.
  4. Robert Grovenstein & James Kau & Henry Munneke, 2011. "Development Value: A Real Options Approach Using Empirical Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 321-335, October.
  5. Cunningham, Christopher R., 2006. "House price uncertainty, timing of development, and vacant land prices: Evidence for real options in Seattle," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-31, January.
  6. Robert Fourt & Gianluca Marcato & Charles Ward, 2007. "Real Option Pricing in Mixed-use Development Projects," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2007-09, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  7. John Clapp & Katsiaryna Bardos & Tingyu Zhou, 2014. "Expansions and Contractions of Major US Shopping Centers," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 16-56, January.
  8. Jeffrey Stokes, 2012. "The value of the option to preserve farm real estate," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 162-175, January.
  9. Yuming Fu & Maarten Jennen, 2009. "Office Construction in Singapore and Hong Kong: Testing Real Option Implications," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 39-58, January.
  10. Tan Lee & Jyh-Bang Jou, 2010. "Urban Spatial Development: a Real Options Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 161-187, February.
  11. Andrea Beccarini, 2007. "Investment sensitivity to interest rates in an uncertain context: is a positive relationship possible?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 223-234, September.
  12. Flavia Cortelezzi & Giovanni Villani, 2007. "Strategic Technology Adoption and Market Dynamics as Option Games," Quaderni DSEMS 14-2007, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.

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