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Macroeconomic efault Modeling and Stress Testing

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Author Info

  • Dietske Simons

    (De Nederlandsche Bank)

  • Ferdinand Rolwes

    (De Nederlandsche Bank)

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    Abstract

    This paper applies a macroeconomic-based model for estimating probabilities of default. The first part of the paper focuses on the relation between macroeconomic variables and the default behavior of Dutch firms. A convincing relationship with GDP growth and oil price and, to a lesser extent, the interest and exchange rate exists. The second part of the paper assesses the default behavior based on a stress scenario of two consecutive quarters of zero GDP growth as required by the Basel II framework. It can be concluded that a stress-test scenario covering two quarters of zero GDP growth does not influence the default rate significantly and thus does not seem to be very severe.

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    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb09q3a6.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

    Volume (Year): 5 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 3 (September)
    Pages: 177-204

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    Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2009:q:3:a:6

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    1. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    2. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2002. "Capital Charges under Basel II: Corporate Credit Risk Modelling and the Macro Economy," Working Paper Series 142, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Gertjan W. Vlieghe, 2001. "Indicators of fragility in the UK corporate sector," Bank of England working papers 146, Bank of England.
    4. Petr Jakubík, 2006. "Does Credit Risk Vary with Economic Cycles? The Case of Finland," Working Papers IES 2006/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2006.
    5. Glenn Hoggarth & Andrew Logan & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Macro stress tests of UK banks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 392-408 Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2006. "Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 06/149, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Siem Jan Koopman & Andr� Lucas, 2003. "Business and Default Cycles for Credit Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-062/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 09 Jan 2003.
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