This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Indicators of fragility in the UK corporate sector

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Gertjan W. Vlieghe

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The determinants of the aggregate corporate liquidation rate in the United Kingdom are estimated from a sample of quarterly data using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach which allows for non-stationarity of the variables. The paper investigates what the appropriate measures of indebtedness are, and examines whether the unprecedented spike in the corporate liquidation rate in the United Kingdom in 1992 caused a breakdown in the relationship between the variables. The debt-to-GDP ratio, the real interest rate, deviations of GDP from trend and real wages are found to be long-run determinants of the liquidation rate. The birth rate of new companies, an index of property prices and nominal interest rates have significant short-term effects. The estimated equation is robust to changes in the sample period. The rapidly increasing level of indebtedness in the late 1980s was the main determinant of the subsequent increase in the liquidation rate. The decrease in the liquidation rate after 1992 was primarily due to lower real interest rates, lower real wages and the cyclical recovery of GDP.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/workingpapers/wp146.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 146.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:146

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Publications Group Bank of England Threadneedle Street London EC2R 8AH
Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
Email:
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Publications Group).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gertler, Mark, 1988. "Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 559-88, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Davis, E P, 1992. "Credit Quality Spreads, Bond Market Efficiency and Financial Fragility," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(0), pages 21-46, Supplemen.
  3. Young, Garry, 1995. "Company Liquidations, Interest Rates and Debt," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 63(0), pages 57-69, Suppl..
  4. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1990. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 87-114, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Scott, James, 1981. "The probability of bankruptcy: A comparison of empirical predictions and theoretical models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 317-344, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Platt, Harlan D. & Platt, Marjorie B., 1994. "Business cycle effects on state corporate failure rates," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 113-127, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2001. "Aggregate price shocks and financial instability: a historical analysis," Working Papers 2000-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  10. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1986. "The Allocation of Credit and Financial Collapse," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 455-70, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
    Other versions:
  12. Akerlof, George A, 1970. "The Market for 'Lemons': Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1986. "Inflation, Bankruptcy, Default Premia and the Stock Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(381), pages 120-38, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Hudson, John, 1986. "An Analysis of Company Liquidations," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 219-35, February.
  16. Jaffee, Dwight M & Russell, Thomas, 1976. "Imperfect Information, Uncertainty, and Credit Rationing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 651-66, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Cuthbertson, Keith & Hudson, John, 1996. "The Determinants of Compulsory Liquidation in the U.K," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 64(3), pages 298-308, September.
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. John hunter & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2003. "AGGREGATE ECONOMY RISK AND COMPANY FAILURE:AN EXAMINATION OF UK QUOTED FIRMS IN THE EARLY 1990s," Public Policy Discussion Papers 03-16, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Glenn Hoggarth & Steffen Sorensen & Lea Zicchino, . "Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 282, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  3. John Whitley & Richard Windram, . "A quantitative framework for commercial property and its relationship to the analysis of the financial stability of the corporate sector," Bank of England working papers 207, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  4. John Hunter, 2003. "AGGREGATE ECONOMY RISK AND COMPANY FAILURE:AN EXAMINATION OF UK QUOTED FIRMS IN THE EARLY 1990s," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 03-09, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. John Hunter & Natalia Isachenkova, 2006. "Aggregate Economy Risk And Company Failure: An Examination Of Uk Quoted Firms," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 06-12, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
  6. John hunter & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2003. "AGGREGATE ECONOMY RISK AND COMPANY FAILURE:AN EXAMINATION OF UK QUOTED FIRMS IN THE EARLY 1990s," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 03-16, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
  7. Virolainen , Kimmo, 2004. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About five million pdf files are downloaded through RePEc every year.

This page was last updated on 2008-9-17.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.