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Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)

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Abstract

The importance of credit-risk models has increased with the introduction of the New Basel Capital Accord (Basel II). This paper follows Merton´s approach to structural analysis, toward default-rate modeling. A latent-factor model is introduced within this framework. Estimation of this model can help further our understanding of the relationship between credit risk and macroeconomic indicators. The results have been used for stress testing the Czech banking sector.

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File URL: http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/5_fau_1_2_07_00000000060.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 57 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (March)
Pages: 60-78

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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:57:y:2007:i:1-2:p:60-78

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Keywords: banking; credit risk; default rate; latent-factor model; stress test;

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References

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  1. Petr Jakubík, 2006. "Does Credit Risk Vary with Economic Cycles? The Case of Finland," Working Papers IES 2006/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2006.
  2. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord–banks’ choice of loan rating system," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24863, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  3. Tudela, Merxe & Garry Young, 2003. "A Merton Model Approach to Assessing the Default Risk of UK Public Companies," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 207, Royal Economic Society.
  4. Siem Jan Koopman & Andr� Lucas, 2003. "Business and Default Cycles for Credit Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-062/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 09 Jan 2003.
  5. André Lucas & Pieter Klaassen, 2003. "Discrete versus Continuous State Switching Models for Portfolio Credit Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-075/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Sep 2003.
  6. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November.
  7. Andrew Benito & Francisco Javier Delgado & Jorge Martínez Pagés, 2004. "A synthetic indicator of financial pressure for spanish firms," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0411, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
  9. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2003. "A survey of cyclical effects in credit risk measurement model," BIS Working Papers 126, Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Castro, Vítor, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 672-683.
  2. Mejra Festić & Sebastijan Repina & Alenka Kavkler, 2009. "The Up-Coming Crisis and the Banking Sector in the Baltic States," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(III), pages 269-291, September.
  3. Zuzana Fungáèová & Petr Jakubík, 2012. "Bank Stress Tests as an Information Device for Emerging Markets: The Case of Russia," Working Papers IES 2012/04, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2012.
  4. Mejra Festić & Sebastijan Repina & Alenka Kavkler, 2009. "The overheating of five EU new member states and cyclicality of systemic risk in the banking sector," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 219-232, May.
  5. Petr Jakubík & Thomas Reininger, 2013. "Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3.
  6. Alenka Kavkler & Mejra Festić, 2010. "The Trade Deficit and Banking Sector Results in Romania and Bulgaria," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(27), pages 199-213, February.
  7. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka, 2012. "The Roots of the Banking Crisis in the New EU Member States: A Panel Regression Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 20-40, March.
  8. Karel Janda, 2008. "Which Government Interventions Are Good in Alleviating Credit Market Failures?," Working Papers IES 2008/12, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2008.
  9. Petr Kadeřábek & Aleš Slabý & Josef Vodička, 2008. "Stress testing of probability of default of individuals," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2008(4), pages 340-355.
  10. Petr Kadeřábek & Aleš Slabý & Josef Vodička, 2008. "Stress Testing of Probability of Default of Individuals," Working Papers IES 2008/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2008.
  11. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka & Repina, Sebastijan, 2011. "The macroeconomic sources of systemic risk in the banking sectors of five new EU member states," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 310-322, February.
  12. Vítor Castro, 2012. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," NIPE Working Papers 11/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  13. Michael Boss & Gerald Krenn & Claus Puhr & Markus Schwaiger, 2007. "Stress Testing the Exposure of Austrian Banks in Central and Eastern Europe," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 13.
  14. Petr Jakubík & Petr Teplý, 2011. "The JT Index as an Indicator of Financial Stability of Corporate Sector," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(2), pages 157-176.

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