Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI
AbstractIn this paper, we analyse the link between the macroeconomic developments and the banking credit risk in a particular group of countries – Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy (GIPSI) – recently affected by unfavourable economic and financial conditions and to which, on this matter, the literature has not given a particular attention yet. Employing dynamic panel data approaches to these five countries over the period 1997q1-2011q3, we conclude that the banking credit risk is significantly affected by the macroeconomic environment: the credit risk increases when GDP growth and the share price indices decrease and rises when the unemployment rate, interest rate, and credit growth increase; it is also positively affected by an appreciation of the real exchange rate; moreover, we observe a substantial increase in the credit risk during the recent financial crisis period. Several robustness tests with different estimators have also confirmed these results.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 11/2012.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal
Phone: +351-253604510 ext 5532
Web page: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/versao_inglesa/index_uk.htm
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Vítor Castro, 2013. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Credit Risk in the Banking System: The Case of the GIPSI," GEMF Working Papers 2013-12, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-01-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2013-01-07 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2013-01-07 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2013-01-07 (European Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
- Athanasoglou, Panayiotis & Brissimis, Sophocles & Delis, Matthaios, 2005.
"Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability,"
32026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Delis, Matthaios D., 2008. "Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 121-136, April.
- Panayiotis P. Athanasoglou & Sophocles N. Brissimis & Matthaios D. Delis, 2005. "Bank-Specific, Industry-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Profitability," Working Papers 25, Bank of Greece.
- Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011.
"Fiscal Policy Discretion, Private Spending, and Crisis Episodes,"
NIPE Working Papers
31/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Agnello, L. & Furceri, D. & R.M, Sousa., 2011. "Fiscal Policy Discretion, Private Spending, and Crisis Episodes," Working papers 354, Banque de France.
- Merkl, Christian & Stolz, Stéphanie, 2006.
"Banks' regulatory buffers, liquidity networks and monetary policy transmission,"
Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies
2006,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Christian Merkl & Stephanie Stolz, 2009. "Banks' regulatory buffers, liquidity networks and monetary policy transmission," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(16), pages 2013-2024.
- Christian Merkl & Stéphanie Stolz, 2006. "Banks’ Regulatory Buffers, Liquidity Networks and Monetary Policy Transmission," Kiel Working Papers 1303, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011.
"How do Banking Crises Impact on Income Inequality?,"
NIPE Working Papers
30/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "How do banking crises impact on income inequality?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(15), pages 1425-1429, October.
- Steve Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- David Llewellyn, 2002. "An analysis of the causes of recent banking crises," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 152-175.
- Ali, Asghar & Daly, Kevin, 2010. "Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Recent evidence from a cross country study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 165-171, June.
- Mario Quagliariello, 2006.
"BanksÂ’ Riskiness Over the Business Cicle: a Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
599, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Mario Quagliariello, 2007. "Banks' riskiness over the business cycle: a panel analysis on Italian intermediaries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 119-138.
- Pesola , Jarmo, 2005. "Banking fragility and distress: An econometric study of macroeconomic determinants," Research Discussion Papers 13/2005, Bank of Finland.
- Diana Bonfim, 2006.
"Credit Risk Drivers: Evaluating the Contribution of Firm Level Information and of Macroeconomic Dynamics,"
Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles,
Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Bonfim, Diana, 2009. "Credit risk drivers: Evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 281-299, February.
- Diana Bonfim, 2007. "Credit Risk Drivers: Evaluating the Contribution of Firm Level Information and of Macroeconomic Dynamics," Working Papers w200707, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
- Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
- Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
- Petr JAKUBÍK, 2007. "Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 60-78, March.
- Jimenez, Gabriel & Saurina, Jesus, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2191-2212, September.
- Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 10/146, International Monetary Fund.
- Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
- Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
- Dimitrios P. Louzis & Aggelos T. Vouldis & Vasilios L. Metaxas, 2010.
"Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: a comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios,"
118, Bank of Greece.
- Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
- Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka & Repina, Sebastijan, 2011. "The macroeconomic sources of systemic risk in the banking sectors of five new EU member states," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 310-322, February.
- Kiviet, Jan F., 1995.
"On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
- Tom Doan, . "LSDVC: RATS procedure to estimate a dynamic FE model with correction for bias," Statistical Software Components RTS00111, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Cifter, Atilla & Yilmazer, Sait & Cifter, Elif, 2009. "Analysis of sectoral credit default cycle dependency with wavelet networks: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1382-1388, November.
- Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 0414, Banco de Espa�a.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maria João Thompson).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.