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Capital requirements and business cycle regimes: Forward-looking modelling of default probabilities

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  • Pederzoli, Chiara
  • Torricelli, Costanza

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 29 (2005)
Issue (Month): 12 (December)
Pages: 3121-3140

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:29:y:2005:i:12:p:3121-3140

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References

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  1. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium analysis, banking, contagion and financial fragility," FMG Discussion Papers dp450, Financial Markets Group.
  3. Philip Lowe, 2002. "Credit risk measurement and procyclicality," BIS Working Papers 116, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  5. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
  6. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
  7. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A model to analyse financial fragility: applications," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24680, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  8. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57 Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Mark Carey, 2002. "A guide to choosing absolute bank capital requirements," International Finance Discussion Papers 726, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Anil Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Cyclical implications of the Basel II capital standards," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 18-31.
  11. Amato, Jeffery D. & Furfine, Craig H., 2004. "Are credit ratings procyclical?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2641-2677, November.
  12. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
  13. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Eva Catarineu-Rabell, 2003. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - Banks` choice of loan rating system," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-FE-06, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  14. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2001. "Prototype risk rating system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 47-95, January.
  15. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2003. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 178-197, April.
  16. Birchenhall, Chris R, et al, 1999. "Predicting U.S. Business-Cycle Regimes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 313-23, July.
  17. Claudio E. V. Borio, 2003. "Towards a macroprudential framework for financial supervision and regulation?," BIS Working Papers 128, Bank for International Settlements.
  18. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
  19. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
  20. Con Keating & Hyun Song Shin & Charles Goodhart & Jon Danielsson, 2001. "An Academic Response to Basel II," FMG Special Papers sp130, Financial Markets Group.
  21. Thomas C. Wilson, 1998. "Portfolio credit risk," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 71-82.
  22. André Lucas & Siem Jan Koopman, 2005. "Business and default cycles for credit risk," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 311-323.
  23. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Pieter Klaassen, 2002. "Pro-Cyclicality, Empirical Credit Cycles, and Capital Buffer Formation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-107/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  24. Carey, Mark, 2002. "A guide to choosing absolute bank capital requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 929-951, May.
  25. Rendu de Lint, Christel & Stolin, David, 2003. "The predictive power of the yield curve: a theoretical assessment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1603-1622, October.
  26. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  27. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking and Financial Instability," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe08, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  28. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
  29. Moneta, Fabio, 2003. "Does the yield spread predict recessions in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 0294, European Central Bank.
  30. Williamson, Stephen D, 1987. "Financial Intermediation, Business Failures, and Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1196-1216, December.
  31. Kwark, Noh-Sun, 2002. "Default risks, interest rate spreads, and business cycles: Explaining the interest rate spread as a leading indicator," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 271-302, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Faiçal Belaid, 2014. "Loan quality determinants: evaluating the contribution of bank-specific variables, macroeconomic factors and firm level information," IHEID Working Papers 04-2014, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  2. Inês Drumond, 2008. "Bank Capital Requirements, Business Cycle Fluctuations and the Basel Accords: A Synthesis," FEP Working Papers 277, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  3. Bruneau, C. & de Bandt, O. & El Amri, W., 2012. "Macroeconomic fluctuations and corporate financial fragility," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 219-235.
  4. Diana Bonfim, 2007. "Credit Risk Drivers: Evaluating the Contribution of Firm Level Information and of Macroeconomic Dynamics," Working Papers w200707, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  5. Ana Clara Bueno Teixeira Feitosa Noronha & Daniel Oliveira Cajueiro & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2011. "Bank Capital Buffers, Lending Growth Andeconomic Cycle: Empirical Evidence For Brazil," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 035, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  6. David E Allen & Akhmad R. Kramadibrata & R. J. Powell & Abhay Kumar Singh, 2011. "A Quantile Analysis of Default Risk for Speculative and Emerging Companies," Working papers 2011-05, Edith Cowan University, School of Business.
  7. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2005. "The Canadian Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: An Equilibrium-Based Approach," Working Papers 05-36, Bank of Canada.
  8. Jodi G. Scarlata & Juan Sole & Alicia Novoa, 2009. "Procyclicality and Fair Value Accounting," IMF Working Papers 09/39, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Giuseppe Marotta & Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2005. "Forward-looking estimation of default probabilities with Italian data," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0504, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica.
  10. David VanHoose, 2008. "Bank Capital Regulation, Economic Stability, and Monetary Policy: What Does the Academic Literature Tell Us?," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(1), pages 1-14, March.
  11. Javier Gutiérrez Rueda & Angela González Arbeláez & Dairo Estrada, . "Un análisis del exceso de capital de los bancos comerciales en Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 052, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  12. Bülbül, Dilek & Lambert, Claudia, 2012. "Credit portfolio modelling and its effect on capital requirements," Discussion Papers 11/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  13. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.
  14. Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2008. "Rating systems, procyclicalilty and Basel II: an evaluation in a general equilibrium framework," Economics Series Working Papers 2008fe27, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  15. Marcucci, Juri & Quagliariello, Mario, 2009. "Asymmetric effects of the business cycle on bank credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1624-1635, September.
  16. David VanHoose, 2006. "Bank Behavior Under Capital Regulation: What Does The Academic Literature Tell Us?," NFI Working Papers 2006-WP-04, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
  17. Alex Ferrer & José Casals & Sonia Sotoca, 2014. "A new approach to the unconditional measurement of default risk," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2014-11, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  18. Chiara Pederzoli, 2007. "Default risk: Poisson mixture and the business cycle," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 07052, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi".

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