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Capital requirements and business cycle regimes: Forward-looking modelling of default probabilities

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  • Pederzoli, Chiara
  • Torricelli, Costanza

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 29 (2005)
Issue (Month): 12 (December)
Pages: 3121-3140

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:29:y:2005:i:12:p:3121-3140

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References

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  1. Luc Laeven & Giovanni Majnoni, 2002. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much too late?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  2. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
  5. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium analysis, banking, contagion and financial fragility," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24826, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  6. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking and Financial Instability," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe08, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  7. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility: Applications," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe05, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  8. Mark Carey, 2002. "A guide to choosing absolute bank capital requirements," International Finance Discussion Papers 726, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Predicting U.S. recessions: financial variables as leading indicators," Research Paper 9609, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Thomas C. Wilson, 1998. "Portfolio credit risk," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 71-82.
  11. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
  12. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  13. Moneta, Fabio, 2003. "Does the yield spread predict recessions in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 0294, European Central Bank.
  14. Con Keating & Hyun Song Shin & Charles Goodhart & Jon Danielsson, 2001. "An Academic Response to Basel II," FMG Special Papers sp130, Financial Markets Group.
  15. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2001. "Prototype risk rating system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 47-95, January.
  16. Birchenhall, Chris R, et al, 1999. "Predicting U.S. Business-Cycle Regimes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 313-23, July.
  17. Williamson, Stephen D, 1987. "Financial Intermediation, Business Failures, and Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1196-1216, December.
  18. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2002. "Procyclicality and the New Basel Accord: banks' choice of loan rating system," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  19. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  20. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
  21. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
  22. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Pieter Klaassen, 2002. "Pro-Cyclicality, Empirical Credit Cycles, and Capital Buffer Formation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-107/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  23. Kwark, Noh-Sun, 2002. "Default risks, interest rate spreads, and business cycles: Explaining the interest rate spread as a leading indicator," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 271-302, February.
  24. Siem Jan Koopman & Andr� Lucas, 2003. "Business and Default Cycles for Credit Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-062/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 09 Jan 2003.
  25. Rendu de Lint, Christel & Stolin, David, 2003. "The predictive power of the yield curve: a theoretical assessment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1603-1622, October.
  26. Amato, Jeffery D. & Furfine, Craig H., 2004. "Are credit ratings procyclical?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2641-2677, November.
  27. Philip Lowe, 2002. "Credit risk measurement and procyclicality," BIS Working Papers 116, Bank for International Settlements.
  28. Anil Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Cyclical implications of the Basel II capital standards," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 18-31.
  29. Carey, Mark, 2002. "A guide to choosing absolute bank capital requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 929-951, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bruneau, C. & de Bandt, O. & El Amri, W., 2012. "Macroeconomic fluctuations and corporate financial fragility," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 219-235.
  2. Giuseppe Marotta & Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2005. "Forward-looking estimation of default probabilities with Italian data," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0504, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica.
  3. Jodi G. Scarlata & Juan Sole & Alicia Novoa, 2009. "Procyclicality and Fair Value Accounting," IMF Working Papers 09/39, International Monetary Fund.
  4. David VanHoose, 2008. "Bank Capital Regulation, Economic Stability, and Monetary Policy: What Does the Academic Literature Tell Us?," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(1), pages 1-14, March.
  5. Javier Gutiérrez Rueda & Angela González Arbeláez & Dairo Estrada, . "Un análisis del exceso de capital de los bancos comerciales en Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 052, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  6. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.
  7. David E Allen & Akhmad R. Kramadibrata & R. J. Powell & Abhay Kumar Singh, 2011. "A Quantile Analysis of Default Risk for Speculative and Emerging Companies," Working papers 2011-05, Edith Cowan University, School of Business.
  8. Diana Bonfim, 2007. "Credit Risk Drivers: Evaluating the Contribution of Firm Level Information and of Macroeconomic Dynamics," Working Papers w200707, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  9. Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2010. "Rating systems, procyclicality and Basel II: an evaluation in a general equilibrium framework," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 33-49, January.
  10. Bülbül, Dilek & Lambert, Claudia, 2012. "Credit portfolio modelling and its effect on capital requirements," Discussion Papers 11/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  11. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2005. "The Canadian Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: An Equilibrium-Based Approach," Working Papers 05-36, Bank of Canada.
  12. Marcucci, Juri & Quagliariello, Mario, 2009. "Asymmetric effects of the business cycle on bank credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1624-1635, September.
  13. Ana Clara Bueno Teixeira Feitosa Noronha & Daniel Oliveira Cajueiro & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2011. "Bank Capital Buffers, Lending Growth Andeconomic Cycle: Empirical Evidence For Brazil," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 035, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  14. Ines Drumond, 2009. "Bank Capital Requirements, Business Cycle Fluctuations And The Basel Accords: A Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 798-830, December.
  15. Faiçal Belaid, 2014. "Loan quality determinants: evaluating the contribution of bank-specific variables, macroeconomic factors and firm level information," IHEID Working Papers 04-2014, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  16. Chiara Pederzoli, 2007. "Default risk: Poisson mixture and the business cycle," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 07052, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi".

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