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Internal ratings, the business cycle and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy

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  • Philip Lowe

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Miguel A. Segoviano

    (International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Monetary, Financial Systems Department)

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    Abstract

    The concept of risk-based capital requirements enjoys widespread support. Effective implementation, however, requires that risk be measured accurately both across borrowers and across time. Under the New Capital Accord, the cornerstone of this risk measurement process is the rating of the borrower. In this paper we use the ratings assigned by individual Mexican banks to examine how measured credit risk for these banks has changed since the financial crisis in the mid-1990s. We then examine the implications of these changes in risk for regulatory capital under the proposed changes to the Basel Capital Accord. We find that measured risk increased after the crisis and then fell as the recovery took hold. In turn, despite the limitations of the data, we find that the proposed internal ratings-based approach would have generated large swings in regulatory capital requirements over the second half of the 1990s, with required capital increasing significantly in the aftermath of the crisis, and then falling as the economy recovered. Looking forward, if movements in actual bank capital were to show this same cyclical variation, then business cycle fluctuations might be amplified by developments in the banking industry.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 117.

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    Length: 27 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:117

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    Related research

    Keywords: risk-based capital requirements; New Capital Accord; rating of the borrower;

    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Con Keating & Hyun Song Shin & Charles Goodhart & Jon Danielsson, 2001. "An Academic Response to Basel II," FMG Special Papers sp130, Financial Markets Group.
    2. Pamela Nickell & William Perraudin & Simone Varotto, 2001. "Stability of ratings transitions," Bank of England working papers 133, Bank of England.
    3. Gabriele Galati & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2001. "The impact of the euro on Europe's financial markets," BIS Working Papers 100, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Powell, Andrew, 2002. "A capital accord for emerging economies?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2808, The World Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Rodríguez Dupuy, Analía, 2007. "Loan portfolio loss distribution: Basel II unifactorial approach vs. Non parametric estimations," MPRA Paper 10697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. C. A. E. Goodhart & Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Boris Hofmann, 2006. "Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 06/223, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Vanessa Redak & Alexander Tscherteu, 2003. "Basel II, Procyclicality and Credit Growth - First Conclusions from QIS 3," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 5.
    4. Fabrizio Fabi & Sebastiano Laviola & Paolo Marullo Reedtz, 2004. "The treatment of SMEs loans in the New Basel Capital Accord: some evaluations," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(228), pages 29-70.
    5. Inês Drumond, 2008. "Bank Capital Requirements, Business Cycle Fluctuations and the Basel Accords: A Synthesis," FEP Working Papers 277, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    6. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis & Ioannis, Daniilidis & Manthos, Delis, 2013. "Bank procyclicality and output: Issues and policies," MPRA Paper 50830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Dimitrios Tsomocos & Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson, 2003. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord–banks’ choice of loan rating system," FMG Discussion Papers dp464, Financial Markets Group.
    8. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2003:i:5:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ali, Syed Babar, 2012. "Quality of Internal Risk Rating Frameworks at Commercial Banks in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 55117, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Rodriguez, Analía, 2007. "Distribución de pérdidas de la cartera de créditos: el método unifactorial de Basilea II vs. estimaciones no paramétricas," MPRA Paper 12637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Miguel A. Segoviano & Charles Goodhart, 2010. "Distress Dependence and Financial Stability," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 569, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Peresetsky, Anatoly A. & Karminsky, Alexandr A. & Golovan, Sergei V., 2004. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    13. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto, 2006. "Portfolio Credit Risk and Macroeconomic Shocks," IMF Working Papers 06/283, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Rubén Ascúa, 2006. "Financial Instruments for Argentine SMEs afterthe Crisis.Teachings from the German Case," Proceedings-4th International Conference on Management, Enterprise and Benchmarking (MEB 2006), Óbuda University, Keleti Faculty of Business and Management.
    15. Panayiotis P. Athanasoglou & Ioannis Daniilidis, 2011. "Procyclicality in the banking industry: causes, consequences and response," Working Papers 139, Bank of Greece.
    16. Fabrizio Fabi & Sebastiano Laviola & Paolo Marullo Reedtz, 2004. "The treatment of SMEs loans in the New Basel Capital Accord: some evaluations," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(228), pages 29-70.

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