Business cycle effects on Portfolio Credit Risk: scenario generation through Dynamic Factor analysis
AbstractIn this paper, we focus on measuring the risk associated to a bank loan portfolio. In particular, we depart from the standard one factor model representation of portfolio credit risk. In particular, we consider an hetrogeneous portfolio, and we account for stochastic dependent recoveries. We also examine the influence of either one systemic shock (interpreted as the state of the business cycle) or two systemic shocks (interpreted as demand and supply innovations) on portfolio credit risk. The identification and estimation of the common shocks is obtained by fitting a Dynamic Factor model to a large number of macro credit drivers. The scenarios are obtained by employing Montecarlo stochastic simulation.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0502010.
Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 11 Feb 2005
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Risk management default correlation Dynamic Factor;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-04-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2005-04-16 (Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2005-04-16 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-RMG-2005-04-16 (Risk Management)
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