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A new core inflation indicator for New Zealand

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Author Info
Domenico Giannone
Troy Matheson (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

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Abstract

This paper introduces a new indicator of core inflation for New Zealand, estimated using a dynamic factor model and disaggregate price data. Using disaggregate price data we can directly compare the predictive performance of our core indicator with a wide range of other ‘core inflation’ measures estimated from disaggregate prices, such as the weighted median and the trimmed mean. Predictive performance is assessed relative to a centred 2 year moving average of past and future annual inflation outcomes. The 2 year centred moving average is used as an analytical approximation of the inflation target from the PTA, which requires the Reserve Bank to keep annual inflation between 1 and 3 per cent on average over the medium term. We find that our indicator produces relatively good estimates of this characterisation of core inflation when compared with estimates derived from a range of other models.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2006/02.

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Length: 44 p.
Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2006/10

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Mark A. Wynne, 1997. "Measuring short-run inflation for central bankers - commentary," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 161-167. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "A Simple Adaptive Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 94-113, February.
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  5. Thomas Doan & Robert Litterman & Christopher Sims, 1984. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-100. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 3432, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Chong, Yock Y & Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 671-90, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2005. "A Core Inflation Indicator for the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 539-60, June.
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  13. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  14. Domenico Giannone & Troy Matheson, 2006. "A new core inflation indicator for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  16. Matheson, Troy D, 2006. "Factor Model Forecasts for New Zealand," MPRA Paper 807, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, and Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
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  18. Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2007. "Opening the black box - structural factor models with large gross-sections," Working Paper Series 712, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2008. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables in South Africa," Working Papers 200815, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2008. "Is a DFM Well-Suited in Forecasting Regional House Price Inflation?," Working Papers 200814, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Aaron Drew & Özer Karagedikli, 2008. "Some benefits of monetary policy transparency in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Marc Hallin & Roman Liska, 2008. "Dynamic Factors in the Presence of Block Structure," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/22, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2008. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Large Datasets: Dynamic Factor Model versus Large-Scale BVARs," Working Papers 200816, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "How should central banks define price stability?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 08, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  7. Domenico Giannone & Troy D. Matheson, 2007. "A New Core Inflation Indicator for New Zealand," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 145-180, December. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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