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Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data

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Author Info
Giannone, Domenico
Reichlin, Lucrezia
Small, David

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Abstract

A formal method is developed for evaluating the marginal impact that intra-monthly data releases have on current-quarter forecasts (nowcasts) of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The method can track the real-time flow of the type of information monitored by central banks because it can handle large data sets with staggered data-release dates. Each time new data are released, the nowcasts are updated on the basis of progressively larger data sets that, reflecting the unsynchronized data-release dates, have a "jagged edge" across the most recent months.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBW-4SK07W1-1/1/0f7d48544ad664fed3018ebff52c4e47
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (May)
Pages: 665-676
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:55:y:2008:i:4:p:665-676

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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  1. William T. Gavin & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2008. "Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 175-192. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Cecilia Frale & David Veredas, 2008. "A Monthly Volatility Index for the US Economy," ECARES Working Papers 2008_008, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
  3. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2008. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," NBER Working Papers 14349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Saverio Simonelli, 2009. "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real-Time: The Role of Confidence Indicator," ECARES Working Papers 2009_021, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
  5. Patton, Andrew J & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Learning in Real Time: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the Term Structure of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 6526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Brien, Derry, 2008. "Now-casting Irish GDP," Research Technical Papers 9/RT/08, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
  7. Francesca Monti, 2008. "Forecast with judgment and models," Research series 200812-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  8. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," ECARES Working Papers 2008_033, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 04 Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
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