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Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large-Panel Factor Models

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Author Info
D''Agostino, Antonello
Giannone, Domenico

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Abstract

This paper compares the predictive ability of the factor models of Stock and Watson (2002) and Forni, Hallin, Lippi, and Reichlin (2005) using a large panel of US macroeconomic variables. We propose a nesting procedure of comparison that clarifies and partially overturns the results of similar exercises in the literature. Our main conclusion is that for the dataset at hand the two methods have a similar performance and produce highly collinear forecasts.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6564.

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Date of creation: Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6564

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Related research
Keywords: Factor Models; Forecasting; Large Cross-Section;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1998. "Let's Get Real: A Factor Analytical Approach to Disaggregated Business Cycle Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(3), pages 453-73, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2001. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(06), pages 1113-1141, December. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Schumacher, Christian, 2005. "Forecasting German GDP using alternative factor models based on large datasets," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,24, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H Small, 2007. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 164, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2007. "Opening the black box - structural factor models with large gross-sections," Working Paper Series 712, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2005. "Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 11285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1983. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1281-304, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Antonello D’Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Paolo Surico, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and macroeconomic stability," Working Paper Series 605, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2005. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 830-840, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP1," Working Papers 333, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Christian Schulz, 2007. "Forecasting economic growth for Estonia : application of common factor methodologies," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-09, Bank of Estonia, revised 04 Sep 2007. [Downloadable!]
  4. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2007. "A Multivariate Perspective for Modeling and Forecasting Inflation's Conditional Mean and Variance," LEM Papers Series 2007/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  5. Antonello D’Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Paolo Surico, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and macroeconomic stability," Working Paper Series 605, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "A Two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," THEMA Working Papers 2006-23, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Banbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Bayesian VARs with Large Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 6326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Christian Schulz, 2008. "Forecasting economic activity for Estonia : The application of dynamic principal component analyses," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-02, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008. [Downloadable!]
  9. De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,32, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Marc Hallin & Roman Liska, 2008. "Dynamic Factors in the Presence of Block Structure," ECARES Working Papers 2008_012, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips curve inflation forecasts," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bernd Schnatz, 2006. "Is reversion to PPP in euro exchange rates non-linear?," Working Paper Series 682, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts using a Large Realtime Dataset," NBER Working Papers 13397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Marco Aiolfi & Allan Timmermann & Luis Catão, 2006. "Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 06/49, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Laurent Maurin & Matthieu Darracq Pariès, 2008. "The role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production. Perspective from Large Panel factor models," Working Paper Series 894, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Staff Reports 327, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Günter W. Beck & Kirstin Hubrich & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Regional inflation dynamics within and across euro area countries and a comparison with the US," Working Paper Series 681, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Altissimo, Filippo & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco & Veronese, Giovanni, 2006. "New EuroCOIN: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 5633, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Barhoumi, K. & Rünstler, G. & Cristadoro, R. & Den Reijer, A. & Jakaitiene, A. & Jelonek, P. & Rua, A. & Ruth, K. & Benk, S. & Van Nieuwenhuyze, C., 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Documents de Travail 215, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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