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A Parametric Estimation Method for Dynamic Factor Models of Large Dimensions

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Author Info
Kapetanios, George
Marcellino, Massimiliano

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Abstract

The estimation of dynamic factor models for large sets of variables has attracted considerable attention recently, due to the increased availability of large datasets. In this paper we propose a new parametric methodology for estimating factors from large datasets based on state space models and discuss its theoretical properties. In particular, we show that it is possible to estimate consistently the factor space. We also develop a consistent information criterion for the determination of the number of factors to be included in the model. Finally, we conduct a set of simulation experiments that show that our approach compares well with existing alternatives.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5620.

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Date of creation: Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5620

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Keywords: factor models principal components subspace algorithms

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2003. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model. One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," LEM Papers Series 2003/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1997. "National Policies and Local Economies: Europe and the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 1632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1995. "Let's Get Real: A Dynamic Factor Analytical Approach to Disaggregated Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 1244, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1996. "Dynamic Common Factors in Large Cross-Sections," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 27-42.
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  5. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2000. "Reference Cycles: The NBER Methodology Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 2400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2003. "A Comparison of Estimation Methods for Dynamic Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Working Papers 489, Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Carlo Ambrogio Favero & Massimilano Marcellino & Francesca Neglia, . "Principal components at work: The empirical analysis of monetary policy with large datasets," Working Papers 223, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  9. Danny Quah & Thomas J. Sargent, 1992. "A dynamic index model for large cross sections," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 77, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
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  13. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/16, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Boriss Siliverstovs & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2006. "On Selection of Components for a Diffusion Index Model : It's not the Size, It's How You Use It," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 598, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2005. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP : Recent Evidence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 522, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  5. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2008. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Diffusion Indexes in Short Samples with Structural Change," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/17, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Alain N. Kabundi & Francisco Nadal-De Simone, 2007. "France in the Global Economy: A Structural Approximate Dynamic Factor Model Analysis," IMF Working Papers 07/129, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sandra Eickmeier & Joerg Breitung, 2006. "Business cycle transmission from the euro area to CEECs," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 229, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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