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Reference Cycles: The NBER Methodology Revisited

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Author Info
Forni, Mario
Hallin, Marc
Lippi, Marco
Reichlin, Lucrezia

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Abstract

This paper proposes a new way to compute a coincident and a leading index of economic activity. The method provides a unified approach for the selection of the coincident and the leading variables, for averaging them into coincident and leading indexes and for the identification of turning points. The statistical framework we propose reconciles dynamic principal components analysis wit dynamic factor analysis. We use our procedure to estimate coincident and leading indexes for the EMU area as well as country-specific indexes. Unlike other methods used in the literature, the country indexes take into consideration the cross-country as well as the within-country correlation structure.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2400.

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Date of creation: Mar 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2400

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Related research
Keywords: Coincident And Leading Indicators; Dynamic Factor Models; Dynamic Principal Components Series;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 6528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 2509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1983. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1281-304, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Egon Smeral & Michael Wüger, 2004. "Does Complexity Matter? Methods for Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Tourism," WIFO Working Papers 225, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michael Artis & Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Factor forecasts for the UK," Working Papers 203, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Massimiliano Marcellino & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, . "Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information," Working Papers 201, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Agostino Consolo & Carlo A. Favero & Alessia Paccagnini, 2007. "On the Statistical Identification of DSGE Models," Working Papers 324, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Christophe Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2006. "A generalised dynamic factor model for the Belgian economy - Useful business cycle indicators and GDP growth forecasts," Research series 200603-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "A Parametric Estimation Method for Dynamic Factor Models of Large Dimensions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5620, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Jushan Bai & Chihwa Kao, 2005. "On the Estimation and Inference of a Panel Cointegration Model with Cross-Sectional Dependence," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 75, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
  9. Massimiliano Marcellino & George Kapetanios, 2006. "The Role of Search Frictions and Bargaining for Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 305, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Stephen G. Hall & Nicholas G. Zonzilos, 2003. "An Indicator Measuring Underlying Economic Activity in Greece," Working Papers 04, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
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