Reference Cycles: The NBER Methodology Revisited
AbstractThis paper proposes a new way to compute a coincident and a leading index of economic activity. The method provides a unified approach for the selection of the coincident and the leading variables, for averaging them into coincident and leading indexes and for the identification of turning points. The statistical framework we propose reconciles dynamic principal components analysis wit dynamic factor analysis. We use our procedure to estimate coincident and leading indexes for the EMU area as well as country-specific indexes. Unlike other methods used in the literature, the country indexes take into consideration the cross-country as well as the within-country correlation structure.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2400.
Date of creation: Mar 2000
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
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