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Common factors in Latin America's business cycles

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  • Aiolfi, Marco
  • Catão, Luis A.V.
  • Timmermann, Allan

Abstract

We develop a common factor approach to reconstruct new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico ("LAC-4") from a new dataset spanning 135Â years. We establish the robustness of our indices through extensive testing and use them to explore business cycle properties in LAC-4 across outward- and inward-looking policy regimes. We find that output persistence in LAC-4 has been consistently high across regimes, whereas volatility has been markedly time-varying but without displaying a clear-cut relationship with openness. We also find a sizeable common regional factor driven by output and interest rates in advanced countries, including during inward-looking regimes.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 95 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 212-228

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Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:95:y:2011:i:2:p:212-228

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec

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Keywords: International business cycles Factor models Latin America;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR," Post-Print halshs-00269122, HAL.
  2. repec:udt:wpbsdt:2012-03 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Monetary Integration Issues in Latin America: a multivariate assessment," Post-Print halshs-00353356, HAL.
  4. Sumru Altuğ & Melike Bildirici, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime Switching Approach," Working Papers 0032, Yildiz Technical University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2010.
  5. Melisso Boschi & Alessandro Girardi, 2008. "The contribution of domestic, regional, and international factors to Latin America’s business cycle," ISAE Working Papers 105, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  6. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2006. "Growth and Reforms in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 06/210, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Catão, Luis A.V. & Fostel, Ana & Kapur, Sandeep, 2009. "Persistent gaps and default traps," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 271-284, July.
  8. Hallin, Marc & Liska, Roman, 2011. "Dynamic factors in the presence of blocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 29-41, July.
  9. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sand-Zantman, Alain, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect against external shocks?: An assessment of Latin American integration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 102-118.
  10. Anoop Singh, 2006. "Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 06/166, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Raúl Ibarra-Ramírez, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation in Mexico Using Factor Models: Do Disaggregated CPI Data Improve Forecast Accuracy?," Working Papers 2010-01, Banco de México.
  12. Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G. & Tan, Bin, 2012. "Two to tangle: Financial development, political instability and economic growth in Argentina," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 290-304.
  13. Matthias Morys & Martin Ivanov, 2013. "The emergence of a European region: Business cycles in South-East Europe from political independence to World War II," Centre for Historical Economics and Related Research at York (CHERRY) Discussion Papers 13/01, CHERRY, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.

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