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Common factors in Latin America's business cycles

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  • Aiolfi, Marco
  • Catão, Luis A.V.
  • Timmermann, Allan

Abstract

We develop a common factor approach to reconstruct new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico ("LAC-4") from a new dataset spanning 135Â years. We establish the robustness of our indices through extensive testing and use them to explore business cycle properties in LAC-4 across outward- and inward-looking policy regimes. We find that output persistence in LAC-4 has been consistently high across regimes, whereas volatility has been markedly time-varying but without displaying a clear-cut relationship with openness. We also find a sizeable common regional factor driven by output and interest rates in advanced countries, including during inward-looking regimes.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 95 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 212-228

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Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:95:y:2011:i:2:p:212-228

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec

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Keywords: International business cycles Factor models Latin America;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Matthias Morys & Martin Ivanov, 2013. "The emergence of a European region: Business cycles in South-East Europe from political independence to World War II," Centre for Historical Economics and Related Research at York (CHERRY) Discussion Papers 13/01, CHERRY, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
  2. Melisso Boschi & Alessandro Girardi, 2008. "The contribution of domestic, regional, and international factors to Latin America’s business cycle," ISAE Working Papers 105, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  3. Altug, Sumru G. & Bildirici, Melike, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime-switching Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Monetary Integration Issues in Latin America: A Multivariate Assessment," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 55(3), pages 279-308, September.
  5. repec:udt:wpbsdt:2012-03 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Luis A. V. Catao & Ana Fostel & Sandeep Kapur, 2008. "Persistent Gaps and Default Traps," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0803, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  7. Jean-Pierre Allégret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 0809, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
  8. Anoop Singh, 2006. "Macroeconomic Volatility: The Policy Lessons from Latin America," IMF Working Papers 06/166, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2006. "Growth and Reforms in Latin America: A Survey of Facts and Arguments," IMF Working Papers 06/210, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Raúl Ibarra-Ramírez, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation in Mexico Using Factor Models: Do Disaggregated CPI Data Improve Forecast Accuracy?," Working Papers 2010-01, Banco de México.

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