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The international cycle and Colombian monetary policy

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  • Lavan Mahadeva

    ()

  • Javier Gómez Pineda

    ()

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze how international cycles affect the real GDP cycle and so monetary policy decisions in Colombia. We estimate that cycles in world GDP, export prices and capital inflows are strongly associated with the Colombian business cycle both on impact and even during the first year. We find evidence that, because of inefficiencies in the domestic financial sector, external gains are channelled into nontradable spending through credit expansions. This creates large appreciations during booms. The reverse happens during world slowdowns. These swings in the Exchange rate restrict the scope for a countercyclical monetary policy.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 557.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:557

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Keywords: Capital inflows; Terms of trade; International Business Cycles; Developing Country; Colombia; Monetary policy; Business Cycle. Classification JEL:E32; E44; E52; F41.;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gonzalo Hernández, 2011. "Terms of Trade and Output Fluctuations in Colombia," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2011-04, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  2. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés gonzález & Enrique López & Norberto Rodríguez, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009884, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Johana Maritsa Hernández Henao & Last: Hernández Henao, 2013. "Demanda externa, términos de intercambio y el papel de la política monetaria durante la crisis de 2008," Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers 7, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.

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