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The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross NationalProduct, 1869-1918

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  • Christina D. Romer

Abstract

This paper shows that the existing estimates of prewar gross national product exaggerate the size of cyclical fluctuations. The source of the exaggeration is that the original Kuznets estimates are based on the assumption that GNP moves one-for-one with commodity output valued at producer prices. New estimates of GNP for 1869-1918 are derived using the estimated aggregate relationship between GNP and commodity output for the interwar and postwar eras. The new estimates of GNP indicate that the business cycle is only slightly more severe in the pre-Worid War I era than in the post-World War II era.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1969.

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Date of creation: Jul 1986
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1969

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  1. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States," NBER Working Papers 1450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Martin Neil Baily, 1978. "Stabilization Policy and Private Economic Behavior," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(1), pages 11-60.
  3. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn61-1, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Sharon Harrison & Mark Weder, 2009. "Technological Change and the Roaring Twenties: A Neoclassical Perspective," Working Papers 0902, Barnard College, Department of Economics.
  2. Abderrezak, Ali, 1998. "On the Duration of Growth Cycles: An International Study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 343-355.
  3. Mark A. Wynne, 1992. "Does aggregate output have a unit root?," Research Paper 9204, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  4. Mark A. Wynne, 1990. "The aggregate effects of temporary government purchases," Research Paper 9007, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  5. Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2008. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: A Dynamic Factor Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7069, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Chris Murray & Charles Nelson, 1998. "The Uncertain Trend in U.S. GDP," Working Papers 0074, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  7. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Michael Klein, 1994. "The Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Policy During the Gold Standard PeriodEvidence from the United States and Great Britain," NBER Working Papers 4809, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Yiqun Mou & Lars A. Lochstoer & Michael Johannes, 2011. "Learning about Consumption Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 306, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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