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The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross NationalProduct, 1869-1918

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Christina D. Romer

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Abstract

This paper shows that the existing estimates of prewar gross national product exaggerate the size of cyclical fluctuations. The source of the exaggeration is that the original Kuznets estimates are based on the assumption that GNP moves one-for-one with commodity output valued at producer prices. New estimates of GNP for 1869-1918 are derived using the estimated aggregate relationship between GNP and commodity output for the interwar and postwar eras. The new estimates of GNP indicate that the business cycle is only slightly more severe in the pre-Worid War I era than in the post-World War II era.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1969.

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Date of creation: Jul 1986
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1969

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States," NBER Working Papers 1450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Martin Neil Baily, 1978. "Stabilization Policy and Private Economic Behavior," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(1978-1), pages 11-60. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sharon Harrison & Mark Weder, 2009. "Technological Change and the Roaring Twenties: A Neoclassical Perspective," Working Papers 0902, Barnard College, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Chris Murray & Charles Nelson, 1998. "The Uncertain Trend in U.S. GDP," Working Papers 0074, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Michael Klein, 1994. "The real exchange rate and fiscal policy during the gold standard period: evidence from the United States and Great Britain," International Finance Discussion Papers 482, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Mark A. Wynne, 1992. "Does aggregate output have a unit root?," Research Paper 9204, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Mark A. Wynne, 1990. "The aggregate effects of temporary government purchases," Research Paper 9007, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2008. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: A Dynamic Factor Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7069, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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