The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross NationalProduct, 1869-1918
AbstractThis paper shows that the existing estimates of prewar gross national product exaggerate the size of cyclical fluctuations. The source of the exaggeration is that the original Kuznets estimates are based on the assumption that GNP moves one-for-one with commodity output valued at producer prices. New estimates of GNP for 1869-1918 are derived using the estimated aggregate relationship between GNP and commodity output for the interwar and postwar eras. The new estimates of GNP indicate that the business cycle is only slightly more severe in the pre-Worid War I era than in the post-World War II era.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1969.
Date of creation: Jul 1986
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Romer, Christina D, 1989. "The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross National Product, 1869-1908," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 1-37, February.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986.
"The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States,"
NBER Working Papers
1450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 679-734 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Neil Baily, 1978. "Stabilization Policy and Private Economic Behavior," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(1), pages 11-60.
- Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn61-1, October.
- Sharon Harrison & Mark Weder, 2009.
"Technological Change and the Roaring Twenties: A Neoclassical Perspective,"
0902, Barnard College, Department of Economics.
- Harrison, Sharon & Weder, Mark, 2009. "Technological change and the roaring twenties: A neoclassical perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 363-375, September.
- Sharon Harrison & Mark Weder, 2009. " Technological Change and the Roaring Twenties: A Neoclassical Perspective," CDMA Working Paper Series 0901, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Sharon Harrison & Mark Weder, 2009. "Technological Change and the Roaring Twenties: A Neoclassical Perspective," School of Economics Working Papers 2009-29, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
- Abderrezak, Ali, 1998. "On the Duration of Growth Cycles: An International Study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 343-355.
- Mark A. Wynne, 1992.
"Does aggregate output have a unit root?,"
9204, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Mark A. Wynne, 1990. "The aggregate effects of temporary government purchases," Research Paper 9007, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2008. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: A Dynamic Factor Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7069, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Chris Murray & Charles Nelson, 1998. "The Uncertain Trend in U.S. GDP," Working Papers 0074, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Michael Klein, 1994.
"The Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Policy During the Gold Standard PeriodEvidence from the United States and Great Britain,"
NBER Working Papers
4809, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Michael Klein, 1994. "The real exchange rate and fiscal policy during the gold standard period: evidence from the United States and Great Britain," International Finance Discussion Papers 482, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Yiqun Mou & Lars A. Lochstoer & Michael Johannes, 2011. "Learning about Consumption Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 306, Society for Economic Dynamics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.