Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Estimation of Prewar GNP Volatility, 1869-1938

Contents:

Author Info

  • Nathan S. Balke
  • Robert J. Gordon

Abstract

New evidence is provided to assess the recent controversy regarding the volatility of real economic activity before 1929 relative to the period since World War II. Some recent work claims that the longstanding stylized fact of greater prewar volatility is "spurious". In contrast, this paper reconfirms the greater amplitude of business fluctuations prior to the Great Depression. The basic technique is the regression method, which estimates equations for real GNP during 1909-38, with one or more explanatory variables for components of GNP, and then uses the estimated coefficients to "backcast" real GNP or the period 1869-1908. The paper contains an extensive examination of the sensitivity of these regression indexes to alternative dependent variables, sample periods, detrending methods, and the inclusion of alternative explanatory variables. Particular attention is paid to the conflicting evidence regarding the amplitude of cycles in construction activity between 1870 and 1890. The resulting prewar/postwar volatility ratios, for 1869-1928 as compared to 1950-1980, range from 1.43 to 2.16. The paper concludes by suggesting that this range of volatility ratios is more likely to understate than overstate the prewar/postwar volatility ratio.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1999.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1999.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Aug 1986
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published as "The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodologyand New Evidence", JPE, Vol. 97, no. 1 (1989): 38-92.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1999

Note: EFG
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Moses Abramovitz, 1964. "Evidences of Long Swings in Aggregate Construction Since the Civil War," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra64-1, July.
  2. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn61-1, July.
  3. Robert J. Gordon & James A. Wilcox, 1978. "Monetarist Interpretations of the Great Depression: An Evaluation and Critique," NBER Working Papers 0300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. John B. Taylor, 1984. "Improvements in Macroeconomic Stability: The Role of Wages and Prices," NBER Working Papers 1491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Luis Ayala & José M. Labeaga & Carolina Navarro, . "housing deprivation and health status: evidence from Spain?," Working Papers 2005-02, FEDEA.
  2. Claudia Goldin, 1999. "A Brief History of Education in the United States," NBER Historical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 0119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. B. Douglas Bernheim & Lorenzo Forni & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1999. "The adequacy of life insurance: evidence from the health and retirement survey," Working Paper 9914, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  4. B. Douglas Bernheim & Katherine Grace Carman & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2002. "The mismatch between life insurance holdings and financial vulnerabilities: evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances," Working Paper 0201, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  5. Runchana Pongsaparn & Panda Ketruangroch & Dhanaporn Hirunwong, 2012. "Monetary Policy conduct in Review: The Appropriate Choice of Instruments," Working Papers, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand 2012-05, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
  6. B. Douglas Bernheim, 2000. "How Much Should Americans Be Saving for Retirement?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 288-292, May.
  7. B. Douglas Bernheim & Lorenzo Forni & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2001. "The mismatch between life insurance holdings and financial vulnerabilities: evidence from the Health and Retirement Survey," Working Paper 0109, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  8. Jordi Perdiguero, 2011. "Vertical relations and local competition: an empirical approach," IREA Working Papers, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics 201124, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Dec 2011.
  9. Opening Speech by Masaaki Shirakawa, Governor of the Bank of Japan, 2011. "Bubbles, Demographic Change and Natural Disasters," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 19-32, November.
  10. Sadequl ISLAM, 2011. "The Economic Effects On Nafta Of Trans-Atlantic Free Trade Agreements," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 11(1).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1999. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.