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Crises in Asia: Historical Perspectives and Implications

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Author Info

  • Hong, Kiseok

    (Ewha Womans University)

  • Lee, Jong-Wha

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Tang, Hsiao Chink

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

The paper analyzes the stylized features of historical crisis episodes for 21 developing Asian economies over 1961–2007. The paper finds that while there is substantial diversity, on average, recessions and financial downturns are more frequent, longer lasting, and more severe in Asia than in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. The paper also finds that the likelihood and severity of a recession tends to increase when it is associated with credit crunches or stock market crashes. Severe financial downturns or recessions in the global economy are often coupled with financial crises or recessions in Asia. In view of the current global crisis and severe financial downturns, Asian economies are expected to experience a severe recession in 2009.

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File URL: http://www.adb.org/Documents/Working-Papers/2009/Economics-WP152.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Asian Development Bank in its series ADB Economics Working Paper Series with number 152.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0152

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Related research

Keywords: Recession; Financial Crisis; Credit Crunch; Asia;

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References

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  1. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
  2. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," NBER Working Papers 10734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Robert J. Barro & Jose F. Ursua, 2008. "Macroeconomic Crises since 1870," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 255-350.
  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299, September.
  5. Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-72, May.
  8. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
  9. Kim, Soyoung & Lee, Jong-Wha & Park, Cyn-Young, 2009. "Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 31, Asian Development Bank.
  10. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  11. Pablo A. Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2004. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Staff Report 335, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries - Some Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & International Monetary Fund & Marco E. Terrones & International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Recessions and Financial Disruptions in Emerging Markets: A Bird’s Eye View," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.), Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 4, pages 059-104 Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Claessens, Stijn & Ayhan Kose, M. & Terrones, Marco E., 2010. "The global financial crisis: How similar? How different? How costly?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 247-264, June.
  3. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2009. "The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Business Cycles in Asian Emerging Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 2710, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Kiseok Hong, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Issues in Korea after the Current Crisis," Working Papers id:2982, eSocialSciences.
  5. Kiseok Hong, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Issues in Korea after the Current Crisis," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22754, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

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