Macroeconomic Crises since 1870
AbstractWe build on the Maddison GDP data to assemble international time series from before 1914 on real per capita personal consumer expenditure, C. We also improve the GDP data in many cases. The C variable comes closer than GDP to the consumption concept that enters into usual asset-pricing equations. (A separation of consumer expenditure into durables and non-durables is feasible for only a minority of cases.) We have essentially full annual data on C for 22 countries and GDP for 35 countries, and we plan to complete the long-term time series for a few more countries. For samples that start as early as 1870, we apply a peak-to-trough method for each country to isolate economic crises, defined as cumulative declines in C or GDP by at least 10%. The principal world economic crises ranked by importance are World War II, World War I and the Great Depression, the early 1920s (possibly reflecting the influenza epidemic of 1918-20), and post-World War II events such as the Latin American debt crisis and the Asian financial crisis. We find 87 crises for C and 148 for GDP, implying disaster probabilities around 3.6% per year. The disaster size has a mean of 21-22% and an average duration of 3.5 years. A comparison of C and GDP declines shows roughly coincident timing. The average fractional decline in C exceeds that in GDP during wartime crises but is similar for non-war crises. We simulate a Lucas-tree model with i.i.d. growth shocks and Epstein-Zin-Weil preferences. This simulation accords with the observed average equity premium of around 7% on levered equity, using a "reasonable" coefficient of relative risk aversion of 3.5. This result is robust to a number of perturbations, except for limiting the sample to non-war crises, a selection that eliminates most of the largest declines in C and GDP. We plan a statistical analysis that uses all the time-series data and includes estimation of long-run effects of crises on levels and growth rates of C and GDP. We will also
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution in its journal Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.
Volume (Year): 39 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (Spring) ()
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC 20036
Phone: (202) 797-6000
Fax: (202) 797-6004
Web page: http://www.brookings.edu/economics.aspx
More information through EDIRC
history; macroeconomics; crisis; crises;
Other versions of this item:
- E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cogley, T., 1989.
"International Evidence On The Size Of The Random Walk In Output,"
Working Papers, University of Washington, Department of Economics
89-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Cogley, Timothy, 1990. "International Evidence on the Size of the Random Walk in Output," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 501-18, June.
- Cogley, T., 1989. "International Evidence On The Size Of The Random Walk In Output," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington, Department of Economics at the University of Washington 89-02, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Balke, Nathan S & Gordon, Robert J, 1989. "The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 38-92, February.
- Xavier Gabaix & Rustam Ibragimov, 2011.
"Rank - 1 / 2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, January.
- Xavier Gabaix & Rustam Ibragimov, 2007. "Rank-1/2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 0342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
- Xavier Gabaix, 1999. "Zipf'S Law For Cities: An Explanation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 114(3), pages 739-767, August.
- Jaume Ventura & Francesco Caselli, 2000.
"A Representative Consumer Theory of Distribution,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association,
American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 909-926, September.
- Caselli, G & Ventura, J, 1996. "A Representative Consumer Theory of Distribution," Papers, Harvard - Institute for International Development 534, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
- Caselli, F. & Ventura, J., 1996. "A Representative Consumer Theory of Distribution," Working papers, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics 96-11, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
- Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
- Weil, Philippe, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42, February.
- Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J., 2008. "The market price of risk and the equity premium: A legacy of the Great Depression?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 454-476, April.
- Satyajit Chatterjee & Dean Corbae, 2006.
"On the aggregate welfare cost of Great Depression unemployment,"
06-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Chatterjee, Satyajit & Corbae, Dean, 2007. "On the aggregate welfare cost of Great Depression unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1529-1544, September.
- Romer, Christina D, 1986. "Is the Stabilization of the Postwar Economy a Figment of the Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 314-34, June.
- Barro, Robert, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," Scholarly Articles 3208215, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010.
"The equity premium: a puzzle,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1401, David K. Levine.
- Martin L. Weitzman, 2007. "Subjective Expectations and Asset-Return Puzzles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1102-1130, September.
- Xavier Gabaix, 2012.
"Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
- Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," NBER Working Papers 13724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading lists or Wikipedia pages:Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Eric Encarnacion).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.