On the Size Distribution of Macroeconomic Disasters
AbstractIn the rare-disasters setting, a key determinant of the equity premium is the size distribution of macroeconomic disasters, gauged by proportionate declines in per capita consumption or GDP. The long-term national-accounts data for up to 36 countries provide a large sample of disaster events of magnitude 10% or more. For this sample, a power-law density provides a good fit to the distribution of the ratio of normal to disaster consumption or GDP. The key parameter of the size distribution is the upper-tail exponent, Î±, estimated to be near 5, with a 95% confidence interval between 3-1/2 and 7. The equity premium involves a race between Î± and the coefficient of relative risk aversion, Î³. A higher Î± signifies a thinner tail and, therefore, a lower equity premium, whereas a higher Î³ implies a higher equity premium. The equity premium is finite if Î± 1>Î³. To accord with the observed average unlevered equity premium of around 5%, we get a point estimate for Î³ close to 3, with a 95% confidence interval of roughly 2 to 4.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.
Volume (Year): 79 (2011)
Issue (Month): 5 (09)
Other versions of this item:
- Robert J. Barro & Tao Jin, 2009. "On the Size Distribution of Macroeconomic Disasters," NBER Working Papers 15247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010.
"The equity premium: a puzzle,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1401, David K. Levine.
- Xavier Gabaix & Rustam Ibragimov, 2007. "Rank-1/2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," NBER Technical Working Papers 0342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Xavier Gabaix & Augustin Landier, 2006.
"Why Has CEO Pay Increased So Much?,"
2006 Meeting Papers
518, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Xavier Gabaix & Augustin Landier, 2006. "Why Has CEO Pay Increased So Much?," NBER Working Papers 12365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gabaix, Xavier & Landier, Augustin, 2008. "Why Has CEO Pay Increased So Much?," Open Access publications from University of Toulouse 1 Capitole http://neeo.univ-tlse1.fr, University of Toulouse 1 Capitole.
- Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
- Xavier Gabaix & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2005.
"Institutional Investors and Stock Market Volatility,"
NBER Working Papers
11722, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Xavier Gabaix & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2006. "Institutional Investors and Stock Market Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 121(2), pages 461-504, May.
- Erzo G. J. Luttmer, 2007. "Selection, Growth, and the Size Distribution of Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 122(3), pages 1103-1144, 08.
- Xavier Gabaix & Yannis M. Ioannides, 2003.
"The Evolution of City Size Distributions,"
Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University
0310, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
- Barro, Robert, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," Scholarly Articles 3208215, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
- Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Robert Barro & José Ursúa, 2010.
"Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters,"
NBER Working Papers
15920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jose Ursua & Jon Steinsson & Emi Nakamura & Robert Barro, 2008. "Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters," 2008 Meeting Papers 1089, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Robert J. Barro, 2007.
"Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs,"
NBER Working Papers
13690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Weil, Philippe, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42, February.
- Martin L. Weitzman, 2007. "Subjective Expectations and Asset-Return Puzzles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1102-1130, September.
- Kuehn, Lars-Alexander & Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas & Zhang, Lu, 2011.
"An Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model with Labor Market Search,"
Working Paper Series
2012-01, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Kuehn Lars-Alexander & Petrosky-Nadeau Nicolas & Zhang Lu, . "An Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model with Labor Market Search," GSIA Working Papers 2010-E63, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Lu Zhang, 2012. "An Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model with Labor Market Search," NBER Working Papers 17742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursua, 2011.
"Rare Macroeconomic Disasters,"
NBER Working Papers
17328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Adam, Klaus & Grill, Michael, 2012.
"Optimal Sovereign Default,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
9178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.