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Asset Pricing under Rational Learning about Rare Disasters

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  • Koulovatianos, Christos
  • Wieland, Volker

Abstract

This paper proposes a new approach for modeling investor fear after rare disasters. The key element is to take into account that investors' information about fundamentals driving rare downward jumps in the dividend process is not perfect. Bayesian learning implies that beliefs about the likelihood of rare disasters drop to a much more pessimistic level once a disaster has occurred. Such a shift in beliefs can trigger massive declines in price-dividend ratios. Pessimistic beliefs persist for some time. Thus, belief dynamics are a source of apparent excess volatility relative to a rational expectations benchmark. Due to the low frequency of disasters, even an infinitely-lived investor will remain uncertain about the exact probability. Our analysis is conducted in continuous time and offers closed-form solutions for asset prices. We distinguish between rational and adaptive Bayesian learning. Rational learners account for the possibility of future changes in beliefs in determining their demand for risky assets, while adaptive learners take beliefs as given. Thus, risky assets tend to be lower-valued and price-dividend ratios vary less under adaptive versus rational learning for identical priors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8514.

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Date of creation: Aug 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8514

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Related research

Keywords: adaptive learning; asset pricing; Bayesian learning; beliefs; controlled diffusions and jump processes; learning about jumps; rational learning;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Carolina Achury & Christos Koulovatianos & John D. Tsoukalas, 2011. "External Sovereign Debt in a Monetary Union: Bailouts and the Role of Corruption," CESifo Working Paper Series 3532, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Jess Benhabib & Chetan Dave, 2011. "Learning, Large Deviations and Rare Events," NBER Working Papers 16816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Christos Koulovatianos, 2014. "Strategic Exploitation of a Common-Property Resource Under Rational Learning About its Reproduction," CREA Discussion Paper Series 14-06, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.

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