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Do subjective expectations explain asset pricing puzzles?

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  • Bakshi, Gurdip
  • Skoulakis, Georgios
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    Abstract

    The structural uncertainty model with Bayesian learning, advanced by Weitzman (AER 2007), provides a framework for gauging the effect of structural uncertainty on asset prices and risk premiums. This paper provides an operational version of this approach that incorporates realistic priors about consumption growth volatility, while guaranteeing finite asset pricing quantities. In contrast to the extant literature, the resulting asset pricing model with subjective expectations yields well-defined expected utility, finite moment generating function of the predictive distribution of consumption growth, and tractable expressions for equity premium and risk-free return. Our quantitative analysis reveals that explaining the historical equity premium and risk-free return, in the context of subjective expectations, requires implausible levels of structural uncertainty. Furthermore, these implausible prior beliefs result in consumption disaster probabilities that virtually coincide with those implied by more realistic priors. At the same time, the two sets of prior beliefs have diametrically opposite asset pricing implications.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

    Volume (Year): 98 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 3 (December)
    Pages: 462-477

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:98:y:2010:i:3:p:462-477

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

    Related research

    Keywords: Subjective expectations Learning Structural uncertainty Priors Predictive density of consumption growth Equity premium Risk-free return;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Michael Johannes & Lars A. Lochstoer, 2013. "Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium: The Asset Pricing Implications," NBER Working Papers 19705, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Yiqun Mou & Lars A. Lochstoer & Michael Johannes, 2011. "Learning about Consumption Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 306, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David & Perote, Javier, 2012. "On the stability of the constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility under high degrees of uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 244-248.
    4. Volker Wieland & Christos Koulovatianos, 2011. "Asset Pricing under Rational Learning about Rare Disasters," 2011 Meeting Papers 1417, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. repec:lan:wpaper:2585 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. T M Niguez & I Paya & D Peel & J Perote, 2011. "On the stability of the CRRA utility under high degrees of uncertainty," Working Papers 615773, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    7. repec:lan:wpaper:2360 is not listed on IDEAS

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