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Optimal Growth and Uncertainty: Learning

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Author Info
Christos Koulovatianos
Leonard J. Mirman
Marc Santugini () (IEA, HEC Montréal)

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Abstract

We introduce learning in a Brock-Mirman environment and study the effect of risk generated by the planner's econometric activity on optimal consumption and investment. Here, learning introduces two sources of risk about future payoffs: structural uncertainty and uncertainty from the anticipation of learning. The latter renders control and learning nonseparable. We present two sets of results in a learning environment. First, conditions under which the introduction of learning increases or decreases optimal consumption are provided. The effect depends on the strengths and directions of the two sources of risk, which may pull in opposite directions. Second, the effects of changes in the mean and riskiness of the distribution of the signal and initial beliefs on optimal consumption are studied.

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File URL: http://www2.hec.ca/iea/cahiers/2007/iea0705_msantugini_v2.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 07-05.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision: Feb 2008
Handle: RePEc:iea:carech:0705

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Postal: Institut d'économie appliquée HEC Montréal 3000, Chemin de la Côte-Sainte-Catherine Montréal, Québec H3T 2A7
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Postal: Institut d'économie appliquée HEC Montréal 3000, Chemin de la Côte-Sainte-Catherine Montréal, Québec H3T 2A7
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Related research
Keywords: Optimal Growth; Uncertainty; Learning; Dynamic Programming;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
D9 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth
E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Mirman, Leonard J, 1971. "Uncertainty and Optimal Consumption Decisions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(1), pages 179-85, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Mark Huggett, 2004. "Precautionary Wealth Accumulation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 71, pages 769-781, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Mirman, Leonard J., 1973. "The steady state behavior of a class of one sector growth models with uncertain technology," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 219-242, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "The Ignorant Monopolist: Optimal Learning with Endogenous Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(3), pages 565-81, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Mirman, Leonard J. & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1975. "On optimal growth under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 329-339, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fishman, Arthur & Gandal, Neil, 1994. "Experimentation and learning with networks effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 103-108. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Aghion Philippe & Bolton, Patrick & Harris Christopher & Jullien Bruno, 1991. "Optimal learning by experimentation," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9104, CEPREMAP.
    Other versions:
  8. Christos Koulovatianos & Elena Antoniadou & Leonard J.Mirman, 2007. "Strategic Exploitation of a Common-Property Resource under Uncertainty," Vienna Economics Papers 0703, University of Vienna, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Prescott, Edward C, 1972. "The Multi-Period Control Problem Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1043-58, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Creane, Anthony, 1994. "Experimentation with Heteroskedastic Noise," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 275-86, March.
  11. Mirman, Leonard J & Samuelson, Larry & Urbano, Amparo, 1993. "Monopoly Experimentation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(3), pages 549-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Keller, Godfrey & Rady, Sven, 1999. "Optimal Experimentation in a Changing Environment," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(3), pages 475-507, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Beck, Gunter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2002. "Learning and control in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1359-1377, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Brock, William A. & Mirman, Leonard J., 1972. "Optimal economic growth and uncertainty: The discounted case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 479-513, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Grossman, Sanford J & Kihlstrom, Richard E & Mirman, Leonard J, 1977. "A Bayesian Approach to the Production of Information and Learning by Doing," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(3), pages 533-47, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Manjira Datta & Leonard J. Mirman & Edward E. Schlee, 2002. "Optimal Experimentation in Signal Dependent Decision Problems," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(2), pages 577-608, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1971. "Increasing risk II: Its economic consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 66-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F, 1990. "Actively Learning about Demand and the Dynamics of Price Adjustment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(402), pages 882-98, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Mirman, Leonard J, 1972. "On the Existence of Steady State Measures for One Sector Growth Models with Uncertain Technology," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 13(2), pages 271-86, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Bertocchi, Graziella & Spagat, Michael, 1998. "Growth under uncertainty with experimentation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 209-231, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Easley, David & Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1989. "Optimal Learning with Endogenous Data," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 963-78, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Aghion, Philippe, et al, 1991. "Optimal Learning by Experimentation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(4), pages 621-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Freixas, Xavier, 1981. "Optimal growth with experimentation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 296-309, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Orlando Gomes, 2008. "Local Learning Dynamics," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(57), pages 1-15. [Downloadable!]
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