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Optimal Experimentation in a Changing Environment

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Listed:
  • Godfrey Keller
  • Sven Rady

Abstract

This paper studies optimal experimentation by a monopolist who faces an unknown demand curve subject to random changes, and who maximizes profits over an infinite horizon in continuous time. We show that there are two qualitatively very different regimes, determined by the discount rate and the intensities of demand curve switching, and the dependence of the optimal policy on these parameters is discontinuous. One regime is characterized by extreme experimentation and good tracking of the prevailing demand curve, the other by moderate experimentation and poor tracking. Moreover, in the latter regime the agent eventually becomes "trapped" into taking actions in a strict subset of the feasible set.

Suggested Citation

  • Godfrey Keller & Sven Rady, 1999. "Optimal Experimentation in a Changing Environment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(3), pages 475-507.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:66:y:1999:i:3:p:475-507.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1467-937X.00095
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    JEL classification:

    • D42 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Monopoly
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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