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When Can Changes in Expectations Cause Business Cycle Fluctuations in Neo-Classical Settings?

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Paul Beaudry
Franck Portier

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Abstract

It is often argued that changes in expectation are an important driving force of the business cycle. However, it is well known that changes in expectations cannot generate positive co-movement between consumption, investment and employment in the most standard neo-classical business cycle models. This gives rise to the question of whether changes in expectation can cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical setting or whether such a phenomenon is inherently related to market imperfections. This paper offers a systematic exploration of this issue. Our finding is that expectation driven business cycle fluctuation can arise in neo-classical models when one allows for a sufficient rich description of the inter-sectorial production technology, however such a structure is rarely allowed in macro-models. In particular, the key characteristic which we isolate as giving rise to the possibility of Expectation Driven Business Cycles is that intermediate good producers exhibit cost complementarities (i.e., economies of scope) when supplying intermediate goods to different sectors of the economy.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10776.

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Date of creation: Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10776

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E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gregory W. Huffman & Mark A. Wynne, 1995. "The role of intratemporal adjustment costs in a multi-sector economy," Working Papers 95-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Burnside, A Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1995. "Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale," CEPR Discussion Papers 1221, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1996. "Returns to scale in U.S. production: estimates and implications," International Finance Discussion Papers 546, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Christopher A. Sims, 1989. "Models and their uses," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 11, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Jaimovich, Nir & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Expectations, Learning And Business Cycle Fluctuations," CAMA Working Papers 2008-20, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah M. Lein & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2007. "News and Sectoral Comovement," KOF Working papers 07-183, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hans-Werner Wohltmann & Roland Winkler, 2009. "On the Non-Optimality of Information: An Analysis of the Welfare Effects of Anticipated Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," Kiel Working Papers 1497, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Alessio Anzuini & Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2007. "Oil supply news in a VAR: Information from financial markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 632, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "News Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 12898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. KOBAYASHI Keiichiro & NAKAJIMA Tomoyuki & INABA Masaru, 2007. "Collateral Constraint and News-driven Cycles," Discussion papers 07013, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  8. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Masaru Inaba, 2006. ""Irrational exuberance" in the Pigou cycle under collateral constraints," Discussion papers 06015, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  9. David R.F. Love, 2007. "Aggregate Comovements, Anticipation, and Business Cycles," Working Papers 0704, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2007. [Downloadable!]
  10. Francesco Giuli & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2009. "Firm-Specific Capital, Productivity Shocks and Investment Dynamics," Working Papers 120, Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Public Economics. [Downloadable!]
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