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Indeterminacy and Sunspot Fluctuations in Two-Sector RBC models: Theory and Calibration

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  • Frédéric Dufourt

    ()
    (Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS-GREQAM, EHESS & Institut Universitaire de France)

  • Kazuo Nishimura

    ()
    (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)

  • Alain Venditti

    ()
    (Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS-GREQAM, EHESS & EDHEC)

Abstract

We analyze sunspot-driven fluctuations in the standard 2-sector RBC model with moderate increasing returns to scale. We provide a detailed theoretical analysis enabling us to derive relevant bifurcation loci and to characterize the steady-state local stability properties as a function of various structural parameters. With GHH preferences, we show that local indeterminacy occurs through flip and Hopf bifurcations for a large set of values of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption if the labor supply is sufficiently inelastic. With additively-separable preferences, we prove that local indeterminacy occurs through flip and Hopf bifurcations for any value of the elasticity of the labor supply, and can even be compatible with an arbitrarily low elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption. Finally, we provide a detailed quantitative analysis of the model. Computing, on a quarterly basis, a new set of empirical moments related to two broadly defined consumption and investment sectors, we are able to identify, among the set of admissible calibrations consistent with sunspot equilibria, the ones that provide the best fit of the data. The model properly calibrated solves several empirical puzzles traditionally associated with 2-sector RBC models.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France in its series AMSE Working Papers with number 1315.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2013
Date of revision: Nov 2009
Handle: RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1315

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Web page: http://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/en
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Keywords: Indeterminacy; sunspots; two-sector model; sector-specific externalities; real business cycles.;

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  1. Casey B. Mulligan, 2002. "Capital, Interest, and Aggregate Intertemporal Substitution," NBER Working Papers 9373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Garnier, Jean-Philippe & Nishimura, Kazuo & Venditti, Alain, 2013. "Local Indeterminacy In Continuous-Time Models: The Role Of Returns To Scale," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 326-355, March.
  3. Baxter, Marianne, 1996. "Are Consumer Durables Important for Business Cycles?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 147-55, February.
  4. Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti, 2010. "Indeterminacy and expectation-driven uctuations with non-separable preferences," KIER Working Papers 702, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Pintus, Patrick & de Vilder, Robin, 1998. "Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 14-59, May.
  6. Jean-Philippe Garnier & Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti, 2007. "Intertemporal Substitution In Consumption, Labor Supply Elasticity And Sunspot Fluctuations In Continuous-Time Models," Working Papers halshs-00352367, HAL.
  7. Nishimura, Kazuo & Venditti, Alain, 2007. "Indeterminacy in discrete-time infinite-horizon models with non-linear utility and endogenous labor," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 446-476, April.
  8. Jonathan Gruber, 2006. "A Tax-Based Estimate of the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution," NBER Working Papers 11945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hintermaier, Thomas, 2003. "On the minimum degree of returns to scale in sunspot models of the business cycle," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 400-409, June.
  10. Pintus, Patrick A., 2007. "Local determinacy with non-separable utility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 669-682, February.
  11. Kazuo Nishimura & Carine Nourry & Alain Venditti, 2008. "Indeterminacy in aggregate models with small externalities: an interplay between preferences and technology," Working Papers halshs-00281428, HAL.
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