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When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings?

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  • Beaudry, Paul
  • Portier, Franck

Abstract

It is often argued that changes in expectation are an important driving force of the business cycle. However, it is well known that changes in expectations cannot generate positive co-movement between consumption, investment and employment in the most standard neo-classical business cycle models. This gives rise to the question of whether changes in expectation can cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical setting or whether such a phenomenon is inherently related to market imperfections. This paper offers a systematic exploration of this issue. Our finding is that expectation driven business cycle fluctuation can arise in neo-classical models when one allows for a sufficient rich description of the inter-sectorial production technology, however such a structure is rarely allowed in macro-models. In particular, the key characteristic which we isolate as giving rise to the possibility of Expectation Driven Business Cycles is that intermediate good producers exhibit cost complementarities (i.e., economies of scope) when supplying intermediate goods to different sectors of the economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Theory.

Volume (Year): 135 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 458-477

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:135:y:2007:i:1:p:458-477

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622869

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  1. Burnside, C & Eichenbaum, M & Rebelo, S, 1995. "Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale," RCER Working Papers 402, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  7. Fisher, Jonas D. M., 1997. "Relative prices, complementarities and comovement among components of aggregate expenditures," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 449-474, August.
  8. Kim, Jinill, 2003. "Functional equivalence between intertemporal and multisectoral investment adjustment costs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 533-549, February.
  9. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-83, April.
  10. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September.
  11. Christopher A. Sims, 1989. "Models and their uses," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 11, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Valles, Javier, 1997. "Aggregate investment in a business cycle model with adjustment costs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1181-1198, June.
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  1. NGDP targeting in an OLG model
    by David Andolfatto in MacroMania on 2012-06-05 05:38:00
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