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The market price of risk and the equity premium: A legacy of the Great Depression?

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Author Info
Cogley, Timothy
Sargent, Thomas J.

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Abstract

By positing learning and a pessimistic initial prior, we build a model that disconnects a representative consumer's subjective attitudes toward risk from the high price of risk that a rational-expectations econometrician would deduce from financial market data. We follow Friedman and Schwartz [1963. A Monetary History of the United States, 1857-1960. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ] in hypothesizing that the Great Depression heightened fears of economic instability. We use a robustness calculation to elicit a pessimistic prior for a representative consumer and let him update beliefs via Bayes' law. Learning eventually erases pessimism, but while it persists, pessimism contributes a volatile multiplicative component to the stochastic discount factor that a rational-expectation econometrician would detect. With sufficient initial pessimism, the model generates substantial values for the market price of risk and equity premium and predicts high Sharpe ratios and forecastable excess stock returns.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (April)
Pages: 454-476
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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:55:y:2008:i:3:p:454-476

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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  1. Raghu Suryanarayanan, 2006. "Implications of Anticipated Regret and Endogenous Beliefs for Equilibrium Asset Prices: A Theoretical Framework," CSEF Working Papers 162, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2007. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 6518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Pablo F Beker & Emilio Espino, 2007. "The Dynamics of Efficient Asset Trading with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001715, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2005. "Euler Equation Errors," NBER Working Papers 11606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Raghu Suryanarayanan, 2006. "A Model of Anticipated Regret and Endogenous Beliefs," CSEF Working Papers 161, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  6. David Colander & Hans Föllmer & Armin Haas & Michael Goldberg & Katarina Juselius & Alan Kirman & Thomas Lux & Brigitte Sloth, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics," Kiel Working Papers 1489, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Missaka Warusawitharana, 2008. "Research and development, profits and firm value: a structural estimation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursúa, 2008. "Macroeconomic Crises since 1870," NBER Working Papers 13940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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