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On the aggregate welfare cost of Great Depression unemployment

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  • Chatterjee, Satyajit
  • Corbae, Dean

Abstract

The potential benefit of policies that eliminate a small likelihood of economic crises is calculated. An economic crisis is defined as an increase in unemployment of the magnitude observed during the Great Depression. For the U.S., the maximum-likelihood estimate of entering a depression is found to be about once every 83 years. The welfare gain from setting this small probability to zero can range between 1 and 7 percent of annual consumption in perpetuity. For most estimates, more than half of these large gains result from a reduction in individual consumption volatility. ; This paper supersedes Working Paper 03-20.
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  • Chatterjee, Satyajit & Corbae, Dean, 2007. "On the aggregate welfare cost of Great Depression unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1529-1544, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:54:y:2007:i:6:p:1529-1544
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    Cited by:

    1. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
    2. Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Lu Zhang, "undated". "Unemployment Crises," GSIA Working Papers 2013-E5, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    3. Cathy Q. Ning & Loran Chollete, 2009. "The Dependence Structure of Macroeconomic Variables in the US," Working Papers 005, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
    4. Philip Jung & Keith Kuester, 2008. "The (un)importance of unemployment fluctuations for welfare," Working Papers 08-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Jung, Philip & Kuester, Keith, 2011. "The (un)importance of unemployment fluctuations for the welfare cost of business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1744-1768, October.
    6. Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas & Zhang, Lu, 2021. "Unemployment crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 335-353.
    7. Chollete, Lorán & Jaffee, Dwight & Mamun, Khawaja A., 2022. "Policy suggestions from a simple framework with extreme outcomes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 374-398.
    8. Tervala, Juha, 2021. "Hysteresis and the welfare costs of recessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 136-144.
    9. Mohammed Ait Lahcen & Garth Baughman & Hugo van Buggenum, 2023. "Racial Unemployment Gaps and the Disparate Impact of the Inflation Tax," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 073, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. Ait Lahcen, Mohammed & Baughman, Garth & Rabinovich, Stanislav & van Buggenum, Hugo, 2022. "Nonlinear unemployment effects of the inflation tax," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    11. Elena Mattana & Ettore Panetti, 2021. "The Welfare Costs of Self‐Fulfilling Bank Runs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2-3), pages 401-440, March.
    12. Robert J. Barro, 2009. "Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264, March.
    13. Satyajit Chatterjee & Dean Corbae, 2006. "Monetary and financial forces in the Great Depression," Working Papers 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    14. Daniel Aaronson & Bhashkar Mazumder & Shani Schechter, 2010. "What is behind the rise in long-term unemployment?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 34(Q II), pages 28-51.
    15. Tirelli Mario & Turner Sergio, 2010. "Quantifying the Cost of Risk in Consumption," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-33, July.
    16. Robert J. Barro & Jose F. Ursua, 2008. "Macroeconomic Crises since 1870," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 255-350.
    17. Chollete, Loran & Jaffee, Dwight, 2009. "Economic Implications of Extreme and Rare Events," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/32, University of Stavanger.
    18. Mitman, Kurt & Krueger, Dirk & Perri, Fabrizio, 2016. "On the Distribution of the Welfare Losses of Large Recessions," CEPR Discussion Papers 11413, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Ensar Yılmaz, 2014. "Welfare Costs of Business Cycles in Turkey," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 195-211, May.
    20. Noghanibehambari, Hamid & Engelman, Michal, 2022. "Social insurance programs and later-life mortality: Evidence from new deal relief spending," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    21. Chollete, Loran & Ning, Cathy, 2010. "Asymmetric Dependence in US Financial Risk Factors?," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2011/2, University of Stavanger.

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