This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Persistent gaps and default traps

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Catão, Luis A.V.
Fostel, Ana
Kapur, Sandeep

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We show how vicious circles in countries' credit histories arise in a model where output persistence is coupled with asymmetric information about output shocks. In such an environment, default signals the borrower's vulnerability to adverse shocks and creates a pessimistic growth outlook. This translates into higher interest spreads and debt servicing costs relative to income, raising the cost of future repayments, thereby creating "default traps". We build a long and broad cross-country dataset to show the existence of a history-dependent "default premium" and of significant effects of output persistence on sovereign creditworthiness, consistent with the model's predictions.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBV-4SVC5S0-2/2/f8a6f9265633cd0964c88777170a7711
File Format:
File Function:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 89 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 271-284
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:89:y:2009:i:2:p:271-284

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Heidi Boesdal).

Related research
Keywords: Sovereign Debt Serial default Default premium Emerging market bond spreads Asymmetric information Output persistence;

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Alfaro, Laura & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2005. "Sovereign debt as a contingent claim: a quantitative approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 297-314, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A, 2004. "Institutions as the Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 4458, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 155-78, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Marco Aiolfi & Allan Timmermann & Luis Catão, 2006. "Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 06/49, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2003. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why it Matters," NBER Working Papers 10036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004. "When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Michael D. Bordo & Hugh Rockoff, 1996. "The Gold Standard as a `Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval'," NBER Working Papers 5340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Jeffrey Sachs & Daniel Cohen, 1982. "LDC Borrowing with Default Risk," NBER Working Papers 0925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2006. "How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship between Growth and Volatility?," IZA Discussion Papers 2252, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Peter H. Lindert & Peter J. Morton, 1989. "How Sovereign Debt Has Worked," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 39-106 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • Peter H. Lindert & Peter J. Morton, 1989. "How Sovereign Debt Has Worked," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, pages 225-236 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  14. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Eaton, Jonathan, 1996. "Sovereign Debt, Reputation and Credit Terms," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 25-35, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1995. "Some curious properties of a familiar model of debt and default," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 367-371, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2002. "A gravity model of sovereign lending: trade, default and credit," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Kenneth M. Kletzer & Brian D. Wright, 2000. "Sovereign Debt as Intertemporal Barter," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 621-639, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Cohen Daniel, 1992. "Debt crisis (the) : a post mortem," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9204, CEPREMAP.
  22. Guido M. Sandleris, 2005. "Sovereign Defaults: Information, Investment and Credit," 2005 Meeting Papers 21, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Ozler, Sule, 1993. "Have Commercial Banks Ignored History?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 608-20, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Ugo Panizza & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "The Elusive Costs of Sovereign Defaults," RES Working Papers 4485, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  25. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2000. "Capital-Markets Crises and Economic Collapse in Emerging Markets: An Informational-Frictions Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 59-64, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Bordo, Michael D. & Rockoff, Hugh, 1996. "The Gold Standard as a ?Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(02), pages 389-428, June. [Downloadable!]
  28. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Endogenous Sudden Stops in a Business Cycle Model with Collateral Constraints:A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q," NBER Working Papers 12564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Cohen, Daniel, 1992. "The Debt Crisis: A Post Mortem," CEPR Discussion Papers 692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  30. Grossman, Herschel I & Van Huyck, John B, 1988. "Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1088-97, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  31. Guido Sandleris & Gaston R. Gelos & Ratna Sahay, 2004. "Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?," IMF Working Papers 04/221, International Monetary Fund.
    Other versions:
  32. Arellano, Cristina, 2008. "Default risk and income fluctuations in emerging economies," MPRA Paper 7867, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  33. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A., 2005. "Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 385-472 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ana Fostel & Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 2007. "Latin America's Access to International Capital Markets: Good Behavior or Global Liquidity?," NBER Working Papers 13194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ana Fostel & Graciela Kaminsk, 2007. "Latin America's Access to International Capital Markets: Good Behavior or Global Liquidity?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 442, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? RePEc also has a blog.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-7.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.