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Monetary Policy in Real Time

In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19

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  • Domenico Giannone
  • Lucrezia Reichlin
  • Luca Sala

Abstract

We analyse the panel of the Greenbook forecasts (sample 1970-1996) and a large panel of monthly variables for the US (sample 1970-2003) and show that the bulk of dynamics of both the variables and their forecasts is explained by two shocks. Moreover, a two factor model which exploits, in real time, information on many time series to extract a two dimensional signal, produces a degree of forecasting accuracy of the federal funds rate similar to that of the markets, and, for output and inflation, similar to that of the Greenbook forecasts. This leads us to conclude that the stochastic dimension of the US economy is two. We also show that dimension two is generated by a real and nominal shock, with output mainly driven by the real shock and inflation by the nominal shock. The implication is that, by tracking any forecastable measure of real activity and price dynamics, the Central Bank can track all fundamental dynamics in the economy.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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This chapter was published in:

  • Mark Gertler & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gert05-1, October.
    This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 6670.

    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:6670

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    1. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2003. "A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 605-617, August.
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    13. Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Real-time Taylor rules and the federal funds futures market," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 44-55.
    14. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D. & Reifschneider, David & Tetlow, Robert & Finan, Frederico, 2000. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 117-141.
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