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On the statistical identification of DSGE models

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  • Consolo, Agostino
  • Favero, Carlo A.
  • Paccagnini, Alessia

Abstract

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models are now considered attractive by the profession not only from the theoretical perspective but also from an empirical standpoint. As a consequence of this development, methods for diagnosing the fit of these models are being proposed and implemented. In this article we illustrate how the concept of statistical identification, that was introduced and used by Spanos [Spanos, Aris, 1990. The simultaneous-equations model revisited: Statistical adequacy and identification. Journal of Econometrics 44, 87-105] to criticize traditional evaluation methods of Cowles Commission models, could be relevant for DSGE models. We conclude that the recently proposed model evaluation method, based on the DSGE-VAR([lambda]), might not satisfy the condition for statistical identification. However, our application also shows that the adoption of a FAVARÂ as a statistically identified benchmark leaves unaltered the support of the data for the DSGE model and that a DSGE-FAVAR can be an optimal forecasting model.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 150 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: 99-115

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:150:y:2009:i:1:p:99-115

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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Keywords: Bayesian analysis Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model Model evaluation Statistical identification Vector autoregression Factor-augmented vector autoregression;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Raffaella Giacomini, 2013. "The relationship between DSGE and VAR models," CeMMAP working papers CWP21/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working papers 2012-38, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
  3. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2013. "Identification-robust analysis of DSGE and structural macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 340-350.
  4. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2014. "Bayesian forecasting with small and medium scale factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 298-323.
  5. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2010. "DSGE Model Validation in a Bayesian Framework: an Assessment," MPRA Paper 24509, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Evren Caglar & Jagjit S. Chadha & Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2011. "Bayesian Estimation of DSGE models: Is the Workhorse Model Identified?," Studies in Economics 1125, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  7. Alessia Paccagnini, 2012. "Comparing Hybrid DSGE Models," Working Papers 228, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2012.
  8. Stelios Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "On the predictability of time-varying VAR and DSGE models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 635-664, August.
  9. Rangan Gupta &  Patrick Kanda & Mampho Modise & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "DGSE Model-Based Forecasting of Modeled and Non-Modeled Inflation Variables in South Africa," Working Papers 259, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2013.
  10. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2010. "On the precision of Calvo parameter estimates in structural NKPC models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1582-1595, September.
  11. Nicholas Apergis & Christina Christou & James E. Payne, 2014. "Precious metal markets, stock markets and the macroeconomic environment: a FAVAR model approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(10), pages 691-703, May.
  12. Christopher Reicher, 2013. "A note on the identification of dynamic economic models with generalized shock processes," Kiel Working Papers 1821, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  13. Carlo A. Favero, 2007. "The Econometrics of Monetary Policy: an Overview," Working Papers 329, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  14. Zhongjun Qu & Denis Tkachenko, 2010. "Identification and Frequency Domain QML Estimation of Linearized DSGE Models," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2010-053, Boston University - Department of Economics.

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