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Macroeconomics and Methodology

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  • Christopher A. Sims

Abstract

Probabilistic reasoning is essential to discourse in economics. This is true in any discipline in which, as in economics, data collection is constrained and beliefs about the phenomena being studied are crucial to decisions that cannot be delayed. Some economists have recently turned away from form probabilistic inference, in part because of legitimate discontent with the prescriptions of specialized econometricians. However, this turning away has gone in mutually inconsistent directions and is in the long run unsustainable. It should be more widely recognized that careful applied work in macroeconomics, using steadily advancing probabilistic modeling techniques, has been steadily increasing.

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.10.1.105
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 10 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (Winter)
Pages: 105-120

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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:10:y:1996:i:1:p:105-20

Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.10.1.105
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  1. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
  2. Christopher A. Sims, 1989. "Models and their uses," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 11, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Christopher A. Sims, 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 3, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Watson, Mark W, 1993. "Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 1011-41, December.
  5. McCloskey, Donald N, 1983. "The Rhetoric of Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 481-517, June.
  6. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1993. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
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