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Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates

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Author Info
Martin Eichenbaum
Charles L. Evans

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Abstract

This paper presents new empirical evidence on the effects of monetary policy shocks on U.S. exchange rates, both nominal and real. Three measures of monetary policy shocks are considered: orthogonalized shocks to the Federal Funds rate, the ratio of Non Borrowed to Total Reserves and the Romer and Romer (1989) index. Using data from the flexible exchange rate era, we find that expansionary shocks to U.S. monetary policy lead to sharp. persistent depreciations in U.S. nominal and real exchange rates as well as to sharp. persistent increases in the spread between various foreign and U.S. interest rates. The temporal pattern of the depreciation in U.S. nominal exchange rates following a positive monetary policy shock is inconsistent with simple overshooting models of the type considered by Dornbusch (1976). We also find that U.S. monetary policy was less volatile under fixed exchange rates than under floating exchange rates. Finally, we find less evidence that monetary policy shocks had a significant impact on U.S. real exchange rates under the Bretton Woods agreement.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4271.

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Date of creation: Feb 1993
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4271

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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  1. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1993. "Liquidity, capital controls, and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 139-153, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1992. "Liquidity effects, monetary policy, and the business cycle," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 70, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "A reconsideration of Sims' evidence concerning monetarism," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 167-171. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  7. Leeper, Eric M. & Gordon, David B., 1992. "In search of the liquidity effect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 341-369, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Stockman, Alan C. & Stockman, Alan C., 1983. "Real exchange rates under alternative nominal exchange-rate systems," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 147-166, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Baxter, M. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Business Cycles And The Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," RCER Working Papers 140, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  11. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-15, March.
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  12. Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Real Exchange Rate Variability Under Pegged And Floating Nominal Exchange Rate Systems: An Equilibrium Theory," RCER Working Papers 128, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  13. Robert B. Litterman & Laurence M. Weiss, 1984. "Money, real interest rates, and output: a reinterpretation of postwar U.S. data," Staff Report 89, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Don E. Schlagenhauf & Jeffrey M. Wrase, 1992. "Liquidity and real activity in a simple open economy model," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 57, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 7-30, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Liquidity and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 339-352, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Economics Working Papers 89-107, University of California at Berkeley.
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  18. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Don E. Schlagenhauf & Jeffry M. Wrase, 1992. "A monetary, open-economy model with capital mobility," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 67, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  20. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1991. "Identification and the Liquidity Effect of a Monetary Policy Shock," NBER Working Papers 3920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Steven Strongin, 1992. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances: explaining the liquidity puzzle," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  22. Robert G. King, 1991. "Money and business cycles," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
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