Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Bayesian forecasting with small and medium scale factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE models

Contents:

Author Info

  • Bekiros, Stelios D.
  • Paccagnini, Alessia

Abstract

Advanced Bayesian methods are employed in estimating dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Although policymakers and practitioners are particularly interested in DSGE models, these are typically too stylized to be taken directly to the data and often yield weak prediction results. Hybrid models can deal with some of the DSGE model misspecifications. Major advances in Bayesian estimation methodology could allow these models to outperform well-known time series models and effectively deal with more complex real-world problems as richer sources of data become available. A comparative evaluation of the out-of-sample predictive performance of many different specifications of estimated DSGE models and various classes of VAR models is performed, using datasets from the US economy. Simple and hybrid DSGE models are implemented, such as DSGE–VAR and Factor Augmented DSGEs and tested against standard, Bayesian and Factor Augmented VARs. Moreover, small scale models including the real gross domestic product, the harmonized consumer price index and the nominal short-term federal funds interest rate, are comparatively assessed against medium scale models featuring additionally sticky nominal prices, wage contracts, habit formation, variable capital utilization and investment adjustment costs. The investigated period spans 1960:Q4–2010:Q4 and forecasts are produced for the out-of-sample testing period 1997:Q1–2010:Q4. This comparative validation can be useful to monetary policy analysis and macro-forecasting with the use of advanced Bayesian methods.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167947313003423
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

Volume (Year): 71 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 298-323

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:71:y:2014:i:c:p:298-323

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/csda

Related research

Keywords: Bayesian estimation; Forecasting; Metropolis–Hastings; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Marginal data density; Factor augmented DSGE;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Jouchi Nakajima & Munehisa Kasuya & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2009. "Bayesian Analysis of Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Model for the Japanese Economy and Monetary Policy," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd09-072, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  3. Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-87, April.
  4. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 0966, European Central Bank.
  5. Malin Adolfson & Michael K. Andersson & Jesper Lindé & Mattias Villani & Anders Vredin, 2007. "Modern Forecasting Models in Action: Improving Macroeconomic Analyses at Central Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 111-144, December.
  6. Marcin Kolasa & Michał Rubaszek & Paweł Skrzypczyński, 2012. "Putting the New Keynesian DSGE Model to the Real‐Time Forecasting Test," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1301-1324, October.
  7. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims, 1994. "Toward a Modern Macroeconomic Model Usable for Policy Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 81-140 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2006. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Working Papers 12772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2007. "Infinite Dimensional VARs and Factor Models," IZA Discussion Papers 3206, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  11. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1995. "Dynamic Common Factors in Large Cross-Sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 1285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "How good is what you've got? DSGE-VAR as a toolkit for evaluating DSGE models," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 2, pages 21-37.
  13. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 96-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  14. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2004. "Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE model: an application to the euro area," Working Paper Series 0389, European Central Bank.
  15. Ralf Brueggemann & Helmut Luetkepohl & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Forecasting Euro-Area Variables with German Pre-EMU Data," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/30, European University Institute.
  16. Consolo, Agostino & Favero, Carlo A. & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2009. "On the statistical identification of DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 99-115, May.
  17. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  18. Ghent, Andra C., 2009. "Comparing DSGE-VAR forecasting models: How big are the differences?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 864-882, April.
  19. An, Sungbae & Schorfheide, Frank, 2005. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5207, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Christoffel, Kai & Coenen, Günter & Warne, Anders, 2008. "The New Area-Wide Model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 0944, European Central Bank.
  21. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni & Ilian Mihov, 2007. "Sticky Prices and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 12824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
  23. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 24, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  24. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
  25. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
  26. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
  27. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Forecasting EMU macroeconomic variables," Working Papers 216, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  28. Ireland, Peter N., 2004. "A method for taking models to the data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1205-1226, March.
  29. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
  30. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Sumru Altug, 1986. "Time to build and aggregate fluctuations: some new evidence," Working Papers 277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  32. John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
  33. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  34. Edward Herbst & Frank Schorfheide, 2011. "Evaluating DSGE model forecasts of comovements," Working Papers 11-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  35. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  36. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  37. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "On the Fit of New Keynesian Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 123-143, April.
  38. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin, 2001. "Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Working Papers 8379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research, National Bank of Belgium 109, National Bank of Belgium.
  40. DeJong, David N & Ingram, Beth Fisher & Whiteman, Charles H, 1996. "A Bayesian Approach to Calibration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, January.
  41. Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1994. "Supplanting the 'Minnesota' prior: Forecasting macroeconomic time series using real business cycle model priors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 497-510, December.
  42. Robert G. King, 2000. "The new IS-LM model : language, logic, and limits," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 45-103.
  43. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Statistical Inference in Calibrated Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S123-44, Suppl. De.
  44. Kadiyala, K. Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1994. "Numerical Aspects of Bayesian VAR-modeling," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 12, Stockholm School of Economics.
  45. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  46. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Evaluating An Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model," Working Paper Series 203, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  47. Ellen R. McGrattan, 1991. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 37, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  48. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, 05.
  49. Ben Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr S. Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422, January.
  50. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
  51. Kim, Jinill, 2000. "Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-359, April.
  52. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  53. Spencer, David E., 1993. "Developing a Bayesian vector autoregression forecasting model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 407-421, November.
  54. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2012. "DSGE model-based forecasting," Staff Reports 554, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  55. Chib, Siddhartha & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2010. "Tailored randomized block MCMC methods with application to DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 155(1), pages 19-38, March.
  56. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
  57. Gonzalo Fernandez-de-Córdoba & José L. Torres, 2009. "Forecasting the Spanish economy with an Augmented VAR-DSGE model," Working Papers, Universidad de Málaga, Department of Economic Theory, Málaga Economic Theory Research Center 2009-1, Universidad de Málaga, Department of Economic Theory, Málaga Economic Theory Research Center.
  58. Richard M. Todd, 1984. "Improving economic forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregression," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Frederic Teulon, 2014. "John Meynard Keynes : une synthèse biographique et bibliographique," Working Papers 2014-498, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  2. Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. Kanda & Mampho P. Modise & Alessia Paccagnini, 2014. "DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Modeled and Non-Modeled Ination Variables in South Africa," Working Papers 2014-562, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:71:y:2014:i:c:p:298-323. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.