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Forecasting Euro-Area Variables with German Pre-EMU Data

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Author Info
Ralf Brüggemann
Helmut Lütkepohl
Massimiliano Marcellino

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Abstract

It is investigated whether Euro-area variables can be forecast better based on synthetic time series for the pre-Euro period or by using just data from Germany for the pre-Euro period. Our forecast comparison is based on quarterly data for the period 1970Q1 - 2003Q4 for ten macroeconomic variables. The years 2000 - 2003 are used as forecasting period. A range of different univariate forecasting methods is applied. Some of them are based on linear autoregressive models and we also use some nonlinear or time-varying coefficient models. It turns out that most variables which have a similar level for Germany and the Euro-area such as prices can be better predicted based on German data while aggregated European data are preferable for forecasting variables which need considerable adjustments in their levels when joining German and EMU data. These results suggest that for variables which have a similar level for Germany and the Euro-area it may be reasonable to consider the German pre-EMU data for studying economic problems in the Euro-area.

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Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2006-065.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-065

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Related research
Keywords: Aggregation forecasting European monetary union constructing EMU data

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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References listed on IDEAS
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  3. Beyer, Andreas & Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F, 2001. "Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages F102-21, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John, 2006. "Dynamics of Intra-EMS Interest Rate Linkages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 469-482, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Helmut Lütkepohl & Ralf Brüggemann, 2006. "A small monetary system for the euro area based on German data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 683-702. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2001. "Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages S20-S36.
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  7. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Stock, James H, 1996. "VAR, Error Correction and Pretest Forecasts at Long Horizons," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 685-701, November.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

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  2. Jenny Kragl & Julia Schmid, 2006. "Relational Contracts and Inequity Aversion," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-085, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Dirk Temme & Lutz Hildebrandt, 2006. "Formative Measurement Models in Covariance Structure Analysis: Specification and Identification," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-083, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Heather Anderson & Mardi Dungey & Denise R. Osborn & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Constructing Historical Euro Area Data," CAMA Working Papers 2007-18, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Enzo Giacomini & Wolfgang Härdle & Ekaterina Ignatieva & Vladimir Spokoiny, 2006. "Inhomogeneous Dependency Modelling with Time Varying Copulae," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-075, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Ying Chen & Wolfgang Härdle & Vladimir Spokoiny, 2006. "GHICA - Risk Analysis with GH Distributions and Independent Components," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-078, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Carsten Trenkler & Pentti Saikkonen & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2006. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Level Shift and Trend Break," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-067, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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