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Evaluating DSGE model forecasts of comovements

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Author Info

  • Herbst, Edward
  • Schorfheide, Frank

Abstract

This paper develops and applies tools to assess multivariate aspects of Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model forecasts and their ability to predict comovements among key macroeconomic variables. We construct posterior predictive checks to evaluate conditional and unconditional density forecasts, in addition to checks for root-mean-squared errors and event probabilities associated with these forecasts. The checks are implemented on a three-equation DSGE model as well as the Smets and Wouters (2007) model using real-time data. We find that the additional features incorporated into the Smets–Wouters model do not lead to a uniform improvement in the quality of density forecasts and prediction of comovements of output, inflation, and interest rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 171 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 152-166

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:171:y:2012:i:2:p:152-166

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

Related research

Keywords: Bayesian methods; DSGE models; Forecast evaluation; Macroeconomic forecasting;

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References

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  1. Frank Schorfheide & Keith Sill & Maxym Kryshko, 2008. "DSGE model-based forecasting of non-modelled variables," Working Papers 08-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Kling, John L & Bessler, David A, 1989. "Calibration-Based Predictive Distributions: An Application of Prequential Analysis to Interest Rates, Money, Prices, and Output," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(4), pages 477-99, October.
  4. Kai Christoffel & Günter Coenen & Anders Warne, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  6. Tilmann Gneiting & Fadoua Balabdaoui & Adrian E. Raftery, 2007. "Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(2), pages 243-268.
  7. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  8. Wolters, Maik H., 2011. "Forecasting under Model Uncertainty," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48723, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  9. Frank Schorfheide, 2008. "DSGE model-based estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 397-433.
  10. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1998. "Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models," Working Paper 98-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  11. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
  12. John Geweke, 2007. "Bayesian Model Comparison and Validation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 60-64, May.
  13. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "On the Fit of New Keynesian Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 123-143, April.
  14. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2008. "A Comparison Of Forecast Performance Between Federal Reserve Staff Forecasts, Simple Reduced-Form Models, And A Dsge Model," CAMA Working Papers 2009-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  15. Edge, Rochelle M & Gürkaynak, Refet S., 2010. "How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  17. Francis X. Diebold & Jinyong Hahn & Anthony S. Tay, 1999. "Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation And Calibration In Financial Risk Management: High-Frequency Returns On Foreign Exchange," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 661-673, November.
  18. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2012. "DSGE model-based forecasting," Staff Reports 554, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  19. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts Using a Large Realtime Dataset," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 468-479.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models," MPRA Paper 36147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Casares, Miguel & Vázquez Pérez, Jesús, 2012. "Data Revisions in the Estimation of DSGE Models," DFAEII Working Papers 2012-06, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  3. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 1210, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  4. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2012. "DSGE model-based forecasting," Staff Reports 554, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2012. "Real-time forecasting with a mixed-frequency VAR," Working Papers 701, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

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