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Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models

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  • Wolters, Maik H.

Abstract

This paper investigates the accuracy of forecasts from four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate using a real-time dataset synchronized with the Fed's Greenbook projections. Conditioning the model forecasts on the Greenbook nowcasts leads to forecasts that are as accurate as the Greenbook projections for output growth and the federal funds rate. Only for inflation the model forecasts are dominated by the Greenbook projections. A comparison with forecasts from Bayesian VARs shows that the economic structure of the DSGE models which is useful for the interpretation of forecasts does not lower the accuracy of forecasts. Combining forecasts of several DSGE models increases precision in comparison to individual model forecasts. Comparing density forecasts with the actual distribution of observations shows that DSGE models overestimate uncertainty around point forecasts. --

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Paper provided by Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2013-03.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:201303

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Keywords: DSGE models; Bayesian VAR; forecasting; model uncertainty; forecast combination; density forecasts; real-time data; Greenbook;

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Cited by:
  1. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2012. "DSGE model-based forecasting," Staff Reports 554, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Inske Pirschel & Maik Wolters, 2014. "Forecasting German Key Macroeconomic Variables Using Large Dataset Methods," Kiel Working Papers 1925, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Henzel, Steffen R. & Mayr, Johannes, 2013. "The mechanics of VAR forecast pooling—A DSGE model based Monte Carlo study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-24.
  4. Michael Wickens, 2014. "How Useful are DSGE Macroeconomic Models for Forecasting?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 171-193, February.
  5. Edward Herbst & Frank Schorfheide, 2012. "Evaluating DSGE model forecasts of comovements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Mike, 2012. "A model-based indicator of the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 526-551.
  7. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2014. "Alternative Tests for Correct Specification of Conditional Predictive Densities," Working Papers 758, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  8. Michael Dotsey, 2013. "DSGE models and their use in monetary policy," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q2, pages 10-16.

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