Confronting model misspecification in macroeconomics
AbstractWe estimate a Markov-switching mixture of two familiar macroeconomic models: A richly parameterized DSGE model and a corresponding BVAR model. We show that the Markov-switching mixture model dominates both individual models and improves the fit considerably. Our estimation indicates that the DSGE model plays an important role only in the late 1970s and the early 1980s. We show how to use the mixture model as a data filter for estimation of the DSGE model when the BVAR model is not identified. Moreover, we show how to compute the impulse responses to the same type of shock shared by the DSGE and BVAR models when the shock is identified in the BVAR model. Our exercises demonstrate the importance of integrating model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty to address potential model misspecification in macroeconomics.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 171 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom
Markov-switching mixture; Heterogenous models; Regime-dependent weights; Model uncertainty; Parameter uncertainty; Impulse responses; Policy analysis;
Other versions of this item:
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Confronting model misspecification in macroeconomics," Working Paper 2010-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Confronting Model Misspecification in Macroeconomics," Emory Economics 1012, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2012. "Confronting Model Misspecification in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 17791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gordon, Robert J., 1990. "The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226304557, Septiembr.
- Christopher A. Sims & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006.
"Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models,"
2006-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Sims, Christopher A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2008. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 255-274, October.
- Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010.
"Sources Of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Regime-Switching Dsge Approach,"
1002, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
- Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2011. "Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations: A regime‐switching DSGE approach," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(2), pages 251-301, 07.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1990. "The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord90-1, October.
- James D. Hamilton & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007.
"Normalization in Econometrics,"
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 221-252.
- John Geweke & Gianni Amisano, 2009.
"Optimal Prediction Pools,"
Working Paper Series
1017, European Central Bank.
- Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November.
- Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2011. "Optimal prediction pools," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 130-141, September.
- Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Confronting Model Misspecification in Macroeconomics
by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2011-01-06 00:58:27
- Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2012. "DSGE model-based forecasting," Staff Reports 554, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Kirstin Hubrich & Robert J. Tetlow, 2012. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: the transmission of crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-82, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.