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Measures of per Capita Hours and Their Implications for the Technology-Hours Debate

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Author Info
NEVILLE FRANCIS
VALERIE A. RAMEY

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Abstract

Structural vector autoregressions give conflicting results on the effects of technology shocks on hours. The results depend crucially on the assumed data generating process for hours per capita. We show that the standard measure of hours per capita and productivity have significant low-frequency movements that are the source of the conflicting results. Hodrick-Prescott (HP)-filtered hours per capita produce results consistent with those obtained when hours are assumed to have a unit root. We show that important sources of the low-frequency movements in the standard measure are sectoral shifts in hours and the changing age composition of the working-age population. When we control for these low-frequency components to determine the effect of technology shocks on hours using long-run restrictions we get one consistent answer: hours decline in the short run in response to a positive technology shock. We further extend the analysis by examining the effects of demographic controls on the impulse responses to investment-specific technology shocks. Our results are less conclusive. Copyright (c) 2009 The Ohio State University.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00247.x
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 6 (09)
Pages: 1071-1097
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:41:y:2009:i:6:p:1071-1097

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  1. Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "Why do Americans work so much more than Europeans?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Jul, pages 2-13. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2005. "A Century of Work and Leisure," 2005 Meeting Papers 250, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2005. "A critique of structural VARs using real business cycle theory," Working Papers 631, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Christopher Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2004. "Can long-run restrictions identify technology shocks?," International Finance Discussion Papers 792, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Pau Rabanal & Jordi Galí, 2005. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," IMF Working Papers 04/234, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  7. John Fernald, 2004. "Trend Breaks, Long Run Restrictions, and the Contractionary Effects of Technology Shocks," 2004 Meeting Papers 477, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003. "What Happens After a Technology Shock?," NBER Working Papers 9819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Jennifer E. Roush, 2005. "A flexible finite-horizon identification of technology shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 832, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1996. "Factor-Hoarding and the Propagation of Business-Cycle Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1154-74, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 870, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2002. "Is the Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis Dead?," NBER Working Papers 8726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Cooley, Thomas F. & Dwyer, Mark, 1998. "Business cycle analysis without much theory A look at structural VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 57-88. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2008. "Investment Shocks and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 6739, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Arabinda Basistha, 2009. "Hours per capita and productivity: evidence from correlated unobserved components models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 187-206. [Downloadable!]
  3. Holly, Sean & Petrella, Ivan, 2009. "Factor Demand Linkages, Technology Shocks and the Business Cycle," MPRA Paper 18120, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, . "Technology Shocks and Hours Worked: A Fractional Integration Perspective," Faculty Working Papers 03/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
  5. Dario Caldara & Christophe Kamps, 2008. "What are the effects of fiscal shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis," Working Paper Series 877, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Fabio Canova & David López-Salido & Claudio Michelacci, 2006. "On the robust effects of technology shocks on hours worked and output," Economics Working Papers 1013, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]
  7. Keith Kuester, 2007. "Real price and wage rigidities in a model with mataching frictions," Working Paper Series 720, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Holly, S. & Petrella, I., 2008. "Factor demand linkages and the business cycle: Interpreting aggregate fluctuations as sectoral fluctuations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0827, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Ghent, Andra, 2006. "Comparing Models of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: How Big Are the Differences?," MPRA Paper 180, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Christian Haefke & Marcus Sonntag & Thijs van Rens, 2007. "Wage Rigidity and Job Creation," Economics Working Papers 1047, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Tatiana Cesaroni, 2008. "Economic integration and industrial sector fluctuations: evidence from Italy," ISAE Working Papers 106, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
  12. Canova, Fabio & López-Salido, J David & Michelacci, Claudio, 2008. "The Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours and Output: A Robustness Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 6720, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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