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Modern Forecasting Models in Action: Improving Macroeconomic Analyses at Central Banks

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Author Info
Malin Adolfson (Sveriges Riksbank)
Michael K. Andersson (Sveriges Riksbank)
Jesper Lindé (Sveriges Riksbank, CEPR)
Mattias Villani (Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm University)
Anders Vredin (Sveriges Riksbank)

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Abstract

There are many indications that formal methods are not used to their full potential by central banks today. In this paper, using data from Sweden, we demonstrate how BVAR and DSGE models can be used to shed light on questions that policymakers deal with in practice. We compare the forecast performance of BVAR and DSGE models with the Riksbank's official, more subjective forecasts, both in terms of actual forecasts and root mean-squared errors. We also discuss how to combine model- and judgment-based forecasts, and show that the combined forecast performs well out of sample. In addition, we show the advantages of structural analysis and use the models for interpreting the recent development of the inflation rate through historical decompositions. Last, we discuss the monetary transmission mechanism in the models by comparing impulse-response functions.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 3 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 111-144
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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2007:q:4:a:4

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paul Hubert, 2009. "Informational Advantage and Influence of Communicating Central Banks," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  2. Jaromír Beneš & Andrew Binning & Kirdan Lees, 2008. "Incorporating judgement with DSGE models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  3. Lavan Mahadeva & Juan Carlos parra, 2008. "Testing a DSGE model and its partner database," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004507, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Pär Österholm & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2007. "The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 07/176, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2008. "A Comparison Of Forecast Performance Between Federal Reserve Staff Forecasts, Simple Reduced-Form Models, And A Dsge Model," CAMA Working Papers 2009-03, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Österholm, Pär, 2006. "Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts," Working Paper Series 2006:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Evaluating An Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model," Working Paper Series 203, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Camilo E Tovar, 2008. "DSGE models and central banks," BIS Working Papers 258, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 2007:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Andrés González Gómez & Lavan Mahadeva & Diego Rodríguez & Luis Eduardo Rojas, 2009. "Monetary Policy Forecasting In A Dsge Model With Data That Is Uncertain, Unbalanced And About The Future," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005480, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Frank Schorfheide & Keith Sill & Maxym Kryshko, 2008. "DSGE model-based forecasting of non-modelled variables," Working Papers 08-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Papers 2008-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Lisandro Abrego & Pär Österholm, 2008. "External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from A Bayesian VAR Model," IMF Working Papers 08/46, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Andersson, Michael K. & Karlsson, Gustav & Svensson, Josef, 2007. "The Riksbank’s Forecasting Performance," Working Paper Series 218, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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