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Steady-state priors for vector autoregressions Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Mattias Villani
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Bayesian priors are often used to restrain the otherwise highly over-parametrized vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The currently available Bayesian VAR methodology does not allow the user to specify prior beliefs about the unconditional mean, or steady state, of the system. This is unfortunate as the steady state is something that economists usually claim to know relatively well. This paper develops easily implemented methods for analyzing both stationary and cointegrated VARs, in reduced or structural form, with an informative prior on the steady state. We document that prior information on the steady state leads to substantial gains in forecasting accuracy on Swedish macro data. A second example illustrates the use of informative steady-state priors in a cointegration model of the consumption-wealth relationship in the USA. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics .
Volume (Year): 24 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 630-650
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:24:y:2009:i:4:p:630-650Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Villani, Mattias, 2005.
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Other versions:
Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter & Rodney W. Strachan, 2005.
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Staff Reports
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[Downloadable!] Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter & Rodney W. Strachan, 2008.
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Other versions: Kleibergen, Frank & Paap, Richard, 2002.
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Kleibergen, F.R. & Van Dijk, H.K., 1993.
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Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1994.
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Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
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Other versions: Schotman, Peter & van Dijk, Herman K., 1991.
"A Bayesian analysis of the unit root in real exchange rates ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
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Other versions: Litterman, Robert B, 1986.
"Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
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Other versions: Strachan, Rodney W, 2003.
"Valid Bayesian Estimation of the Cointegrating Error Correction Model ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
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Other versions: Villani, Mattias & Warne, Anders, 2003.
"Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy using Bayesian Cointegrated Structural VARs ,"
Working Paper Series
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[Downloadable!]
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"On Bayesian Routes to Unit Roots ,"
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Other versions: John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999.
"Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality ,"
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Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998.
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"Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions ,"
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Villani, Mattias, 2005.
"Inference in Vector Autoregressive Models with an Informative Prior on the Steady State ,"
Working Paper Series
181, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
[Downloadable!]
Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004.
"Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption ,"
American Economic Review ,
American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 276-299, March.
[Downloadable!]
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Lisandro Abrego & Pär Österholm, 2008.
"External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from A Bayesian VAR Model ,"
IMF Working Papers
08/46, International Monetary Fund.
[Downloadable!]
Marek Jarocinski & Frank R. Smets, 2008.
"House prices and the stance of monetary policy ,"
Review ,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 339-366.
[Downloadable!]
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