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Valid Bayesian Estimation of the Cointegrating Error Correction Model

Author

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  • Strachan, R.

Abstract

Two methods of identifying cointegrating vectors are commonly used: linear restrictions and the nonlinear method of Johansenos maximum likelihood procedure. That linear method can produce invalid estimates while the Johansen approach always produces valid estimates has been recognised in several recent articles. As all Bayesian studies to date have used linear restrictions, this article presents a Bayesian method for obtaining estimates of cointegrating vectors that will always be valid.

Suggested Citation

  • Strachan, R., 2000. "Valid Bayesian Estimation of the Cointegrating Error Correction Model," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/00, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2000-6
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    File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2000/wp6-00.pdf
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    Keywords

    Identification restrictions; singular value decomposition; error-correction model; cointegration; Bayesian analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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