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Valid Bayesian Estimation of the Cointegrating Error Correction Model

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Author Info
Strachan, Rodney W

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Abstract

Two methods of identifying cointegrating vectors are commonly used: linear restrictions and the nonlinear method of Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. That the linear method can produce invalid estimates while the Johansen approach always produces valid estimates has been recognized in several recent articles. Because all Bayesian studies to date have used linear restrictions, this article presents a Bayesian method for obtaining estimates of cointegrating vectors that will always be valid. In addition, it also presents an approach for evaluating the validity of linear restrictions.

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Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 185-95
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:21:y:2003:i:1:p:185-95

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  2. Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Inference of General Linear Restrictions on the Cointegration Space," Working Paper Series 189, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  3. Anders Warne, 2006. "Bayesian inference in cointegrated VAR models - with applications to the demand for euro area M3," Working Paper Series 692, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. H.K. Van Dijk, 2002. "On Bayesian structural inference in a simultaneous equation model," Econometric Institute Report 263, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  5. Chew Lian Chua & Peter Summers, 2004. "Structural Error Correction Model: A Bayesian Perspective," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 702, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  6. Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Assessing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Using Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 09-14, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Villani, Mattias, 2003. "Bayes Estimators of the Cointegration Space," Working Paper Series 150, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  8. Andrea, SILVESTRINI, 2007. "Testing fiscal sustainability in Poland : a Bayesian analysis of cointegration," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007040, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Deborah Gefang, 2008. "Revisiting money-output causality from a Bayesian logistic smooth transition VECM perspective," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/5, Department of Economics, University of Leicester. [Downloadable!]
  10. Mattias Villani, 2009. "Steady-state priors for vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 630-650. [Downloadable!]
  11. Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney Strachan, 2006. "Bayesian Inference in a Cointegrating Panel Data Model," Discussion Papers in Economics 06/2, Department of Economics, University of Leicester. [Downloadable!]
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