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Valid Bayesian Estimation of the Cointegrating Error Correction Model

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Author Info

  • Strachan, Rodney W

Abstract

Two methods of identifying cointegrating vectors are commonly used: linear restrictions and the nonlinear method of Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. That the linear method can produce invalid estimates while the Johansen approach always produces valid estimates has been recognized in several recent articles. Because all Bayesian studies to date have used linear restrictions, this article presents a Bayesian method for obtaining estimates of cointegrating vectors that will always be valid. In addition, it also presents an approach for evaluating the validity of linear restrictions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 185-95

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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:21:y:2003:i:1:p:185-95

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Cited by:
  1. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter & Rodney W. Strachan, 2005. "Reexamining the consumption-wealth relationship: the role of model uncertainty," Staff Reports 202, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Assessing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Using Dynamic Factor Models," Working Paper Series 35_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2009.
  3. Chew Lian Chua & Peter Summers, 2004. "Structural Error Correction Model: A Bayesian Perspective," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 702, Econometric Society.
  4. Karlsson, Sune, 2012. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2012:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
  5. Markus Jochmann & Gary Koop, 2011. "Regime-Switching Cointegration," Working Paper Series 40_11, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  6. Villani, Mattias, 2003. "Bayes Estimators of the Cointegration Space," Working Paper Series 150, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  7. Villani, Mattias, 2006. "Bayesian point estimation of the cointegration space," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 645-664, October.
  8. Radchenko, Stanislav & Tsurumi, Hiroki, 2006. "Limited information Bayesian analysis of a simultaneous equation with an autocorrelated error term and its application to the U.S. gasoline market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 31-49, July.
  9. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "Assessing the transmission of monetary policy using dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 27593, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2010.
  10. Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Inference of General Linear Restrictions on the Cointegration Space," Working Paper Series 189, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  11. Strachan, Rodney W. & Inder, Brett, 2004. "Bayesian analysis of the error correction model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 307-325, December.
  12. Anders Warne, 2006. "Bayesian inference in cointegrated VAR models - with applications to the demand for euro area M3," Working Paper Series 692, European Central Bank.
  13. SILVESTRINI, Andrea, 2007. "Testing fiscal sustainability in Poland: a Bayesian analysis of cointegration," CORE Discussion Papers 2007080, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  14. Mattias Villani, 2009. "Steady-state priors for vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 630-650.

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