Inference in Vector Autoregressive Models with an Informative Prior on the Steady State
AbstractVector autoregressions have steadily gained in popularity since their introduction in econometrics 25 years ago. A drawback of the otherwise fairly well developed methodology is the inability to incorporate prior beliefs regarding the system's steady state in a satisfactory way. Such prior information are typically readily available and may be crucial for forecasts at long horizons. This paper develops easily implemented numerical simulation algorithms for analyzing stationary and cointegrated VARs in a parametrization where prior beliefs on the steady state may be adequately incorporated. The analysis is illustrated on macroeconomic data for the Euro area.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 181.
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 16 Mar 2005
Date of revision:
Cointegration; Bayesian inference; Forecasting; Unconditional mean; VARs;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-03-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2005-03-20 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2005-03-20 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-MAC-2005-03-20 (Macroeconomics)
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